Win probability changed during the game. · 31 October 2023
It was more exciting than 38% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Vassell · Johnson · Sochan · Wembanyama · Jones
Closing lineup · PHX
Durant · Allen · Gordon · Nurkic · Watanabe
Devin Vassell
36′ · -1
Keldon Johnson
33′ · +1
Jeremy Sochan
30′ · -7
Victor Wembanyama
28′ · -3
Zach Collins
27′ · +8
Cedi Osman
19′ · +6
Charles Bassey
15′ · -13
Malaki Branham
9′ · +2
Tre Jones
24′ · +13
Julian Champagnie
3′ · -1
Doug McDermott
15′ · 0
Kevin Durant
37′ · +3
Grayson Allen
37′ · -12
Eric Gordon
36′ · +8
Josh Okogie
30′ · -3
Jusuf Nurkic
30′ · -8
Drew Eubanks
17′ · +13
Jordan Goodwin
15′ · -2
Yuta Watanabe
19′ · -6
Nassir Little
18′ · +2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Collins, Johnson, Vassell, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Bassey, Vassell, Jones, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Collins, Johnson, Vassell, Sochan, and McDermott played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Phoenix Suns
Allen, Okogie, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 21.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Watanabe, Eubanks, Little, Goodwin, and Durant played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Allen, Watanabe, Little, Gordon, and Nurkic played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
Osman, Johnson, Bassey, Jones, and Branham played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Collins, Johnson, Vassell, Jones, and Sochan played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Collins, Johnson, Vassell, Jones, and Wembanyama played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Osman, Collins, Johnson, Jones, and Branham played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Jones, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Osman, Johnson, Bassey, Branham, and Sochan played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Osman, Vassell, Sochan, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bassey, Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, and Wembanyama played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Osman, Collins, Vassell, Sochan, and McDermott played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Osman, Bassey, Jones, Champagnie, and Wembanyama played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Osman, Collins, Johnson, Sochan, and McDermott played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Osman, Vassell, Jones, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Osman, Collins, Johnson, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Osman, Bassey, Jones, Branham, and Sochan played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Osman, Bassey, Vassell, Jones, and Branham played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Phoenix Suns
Allen, Okogie, Eubanks, Durant, and Gordon played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Allen, Watanabe, Eubanks, Little, and Goodwin played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Watanabe, Eubanks, Little, Durant, and Gordon played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Allen, Okogie, Goodwin, Durant, and Nurkic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Watanabe, Eubanks, Little, Goodwin, and Gordon played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Allen, Okogie, Eubanks, Goodwin, and Durant played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

