Win probability changed during the game. · 15 November 2023
It was more exciting than 59% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHI leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Banchero · Wagner · Suggs · Ingles · Isaac
Closing lineup · CHI
Vucevic · LaVine · Williams · Craig · Caruso
Paolo Banchero
33′ · -8
Franz Wagner
31′ · +1
Anthony Black
27′ · -2
Jalen Suggs
27′ · -2
Goga Bitadze
26′ · +6
Joe Ingles
18′ · +3
Cole Anthony
22′ · +4
Gary Harris
21′ · +2
Moritz Wagner
20′ · +2
Jonathan Isaac
17′ · +4
Nikola Vucevic
36′ · +4
Zach LaVine
36′ · +3
Coby White
33′ · +5
Patrick Williams
32′ · -2
Torrey Craig
28′ · -8
Alex Caruso
24′ · +7
Ayo Dosunmu
18′ · -6
Andre Drummond
12′ · -6
Jevon Carter
16′ · -3
Julian Phillips
4′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and CHI.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Bitadze, Wagner, Suggs, Banchero, and Black played 15.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Anthony, Wagner, and Harris played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 18 points.
Bitadze, Suggs, Banchero, Black, and Ingles played 7.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Chicago Bulls
Craig, White, Williams, Vucevic, and LaVine played 15.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Caruso, White, Williams, Vucevic, and LaVine played 9.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Caruso, Carter, Dosunmu, Phillips, and Drummond played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Isaac, Wagner, Anthony, Harris, and Ingles played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Wagner, Anthony, Banchero, Harris, and Ingles played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Wagner, Wagner, Suggs, Banchero, and Harris played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bitadze, Anthony, Banchero, Black, and Ingles played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Suggs, Banchero, and Black played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Chicago Bulls
Craig, Carter, White, Dosunmu, and Vucevic played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Caruso, Craig, Carter, Dosunmu, and Vucevic played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Craig, Carter, Williams, Dosunmu, and Vucevic played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Caruso, Williams, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Carter, White, Williams, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Caruso, Craig, Dosunmu, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Caruso, Craig, Dosunmu, Vucevic, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Caruso, White, Williams, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Caruso, Carter, Dosunmu, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Caruso, Craig, White, Drummond, and LaVine played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

