Win probability changed during the game. · 19 November 2023
It was more exciting than 92% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 27 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Brooks · VanVleet · Smith · Green · Sengun
Closing lineup · LAL
James · Reddish · Prince · Hachimura · Reaves
Dillon Brooks
41′ · +3
Fred VanVleet
40′ · +4
Jabari Smith Jr.
32′ · -5
Jalen Green
31′ · +3
Alperen Sengun
31′ · +21
Jae'Sean Tate
16′ · +6
Aaron Holiday
15′ · +2
Tari Eason
17′ · -18
Jeff Green
14′ · -15
Jock Landale
4′ · -6
LeBron James
40′ · +2
Cam Reddish
39′ · +13
Anthony Davis
33′ · -8
Taurean Prince
24′ · -6
D'Angelo Russell
24′ · -7
Rui Hachimura
32′ · -2
Austin Reaves
25′ · +9
Christian Wood
18′ · +8
Jaxson Hayes
5′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and LAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 16.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
VanVleet, Brooks, Smith, Eason, and Green played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Russell, Prince, Reddish, Davis, and James played 11.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Hachimura, Reddish, Reaves, Davis, and James played 7.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Wood, Hachimura, Reddish, Reaves, and James played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Landale, Green, and Smith played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Holiday, Green, Tate, Eason, and Green played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Brooks, Holiday, Green, Tate, and Sengun played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Tate, and Green played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
VanVleet, Holiday, Tate, Eason, and Green played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Tate, and Sengun played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Brooks, Holiday, Green, Eason, and Green played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
VanVleet, Green, Tate, Sengun, and Smith played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Tate, and Sengun played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Los Angeles Lakers
Wood, Hachimura, Reddish, Reaves, and Davis played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Wood, Prince, Hachimura, Reaves, and James played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Davis, and James played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Wood, Hachimura, Reddish, Hayes, and Reaves played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Hachimura, Reddish, Davis, and James played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Russell, Hachimura, Reddish, Hayes, and James played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Reddish, and Davis played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Wood, Prince, Davis, and James played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Russell, Prince, Reaves, Davis, and James played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

