SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 19 November 2023

HOU104–105LAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 92% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 27 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ LAL winsHOU wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when HOU does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · HOU

Dillon Brooks
Fred VanVleet
Jabari Smith Jr.
Jalen Green
Alperen Sengun

Brooks · VanVleet · Smith · Green · Sengun

Closing lineup · LAL

LeBron James
Cam Reddish
Taurean Prince
Rui Hachimura
Austin Reaves

James · Reddish · Prince · Hachimura · Reaves

Q1Q2Q3Q4
HOU
Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks

41′ · +3

Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet

40′ · +4

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr.

32′ · -5

Jalen Green

Jalen Green

31′ · +3

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun

31′ · +21

Jae'Sean Tate

Jae'Sean Tate

16′ · +6

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

15′ · +2

Tari Eason

Tari Eason

17′ · -18

Jeff Green

Jeff Green

14′ · -15

Jock Landale

Jock Landale

4′ · -6

LAL
LeBron James

LeBron James

40′ · +2

Cam Reddish

Cam Reddish

39′ · +13

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis

33′ · -8

Taurean Prince

Taurean Prince

24′ · -6

D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

24′ · -7

Rui Hachimura

Rui Hachimura

32′ · -2

Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves

25′ · +9

Christian Wood

Christian Wood

18′ · +8

Jaxson Hayes

Jaxson Hayes

5′ · -4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and LAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 16.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 13 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Smith, Eason, and Green played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Russell, Prince, Reddish, Davis, and James played 11.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Hachimura, Reddish, Reaves, Davis, and James played 7.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Wood, Hachimura, Reddish, Reaves, and James played 5.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 13 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Landale, Green, and Smith played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Holiday, Green, Tate, Eason, and Green played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Brooks, Holiday, Green, Tate, and Sengun played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Tate, and Green played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • VanVleet, Holiday, Tate, Eason, and Green played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Holiday, Tate, and Sengun played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Brooks, Holiday, Green, Eason, and Green played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • VanVleet, Green, Tate, Sengun, and Smith played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Tate, and Sengun played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Wood, Hachimura, Reddish, Reaves, and Davis played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Wood, Prince, Hachimura, Reaves, and James played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Davis, and James played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.

  • Wood, Hachimura, Reddish, Hayes, and Reaves played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Hachimura, Reddish, Davis, and James played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Russell, Hachimura, Reddish, Hayes, and James played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Reddish, and Davis played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Wood, Prince, Davis, and James played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Prince, Reaves, Davis, and James played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.997
100% of capacity
Crypto.com Arena · Los Angeles
Scoring
209
combined points
19.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

24 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors