Win probability changed during the game. · 20 November 2023
The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
The last point of this curve falls on BOS's side, but CHA won 121-118. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHA leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Tatum · Holiday · Hauser · Brown · Porzingis
Closing lineup · CHA
Bridges · Miller · Hayward · Williams · Washington
Jayson Tatum
44′ · -5
Jrue Holiday
37′ · -4
Sam Hauser
37′ · -22
Jaylen Brown
34′ · -23
Kristaps Porzingis
34′ · -26
Payton Pritchard
33′ · +16
Oshae Brissett
17′ · +17
Luke Kornet
19′ · +25
Svi Mykhailiuk
9′ · +7
Miles Bridges
45′ · -6
LaMelo Ball
41′ · +3
Brandon Miller
40′ · +22
Gordon Hayward
39′ · +20
Mark Williams
33′ · +33
P.J. Washington
28′ · -21
Ish Smith
20′ · -12
Bryce McGowens
14′ · -17
JT Thor
5′ · -7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and CHA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, Hauser, Holiday, and Porzingis played 19.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 17 points.
Tatum, Kornet, Brissett, Pritchard, and Holiday played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Kornet, Mykhailiuk, Brissett, Pritchard, and Hauser played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Ball, Williams, Miller, and Hayward played 23.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 28 points.
Bridges, Washington, Ball, McGowens, and Smith played 8.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Washington, Williams, Miller, Hayward, and Smith played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, Hauser, and Porzingis played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, Holiday, and Porzingis played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Tatum, Kornet, Mykhailiuk, Pritchard, and Holiday played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Brissett, Pritchard, Hauser, and Porzingis played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Tatum, Pritchard, Hauser, Holiday, and Porzingis played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Kornet, Brissett, Pritchard, and Hauser played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, and Hauser played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Washington, Ball, Thor, and McGowens played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Bridges, Washington, Miller, Hayward, and Smith played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Washington, Ball, Williams, Miller, and Hayward played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bridges, Washington, Ball, Miller, and Hayward played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Bridges, Washington, McGowens, Miller, and Smith played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
