Win probability changed during the game. · 5 January 2024
It was more exciting than 68% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Banchero · Wagner · Suggs · Okeke · Queen
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Gordon · Murray · Porter · Caldwell-Pope
Paolo Banchero
41′ · +2
Moritz Wagner
38′ · +1
Jalen Suggs
34′ · +1
Chuma Okeke
29′ · -2
Anthony Black
5′ · -6
Cole Anthony
31′ · +2
Caleb Houstan
24′ · +2
Trevelin Queen
31′ · +10
Admiral Schofield
9′ · 0
Nikola Jokic
37′ · -4
Aaron Gordon
36′ · -4
Jamal Murray
33′ · -5
Michael Porter Jr.
31′ · +6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
29′ · +2
Peyton Watson
13′ · -16
Reggie Jackson
17′ · +1
Christian Braun
16′ · -2
Zeke Nnaji
11′ · +2
Justin Holiday
10′ · +4
Braxton Key
6′ · +6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Wagner, Anthony, Queen, Suggs, and Banchero played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Wagner, Anthony, Queen, Banchero, and Houstan played 7.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Wagner, Okeke, Suggs, Banchero, and Houstan played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Porter, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 27.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Nnaji, Key, Braun, Jackson, and Holiday played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Nnaji, Braun, Watson, Jackson, and Holiday played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Wagner, Okeke, Queen, Suggs, and Banchero played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Wagner, Okeke, Suggs, Banchero, and Black played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Okeke, Schofield, Anthony, Queen, and Houstan played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Wagner, Anthony, Suggs, Banchero, and Houstan played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Okeke, Schofield, Anthony, Queen, and Suggs played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Wagner, Okeke, Anthony, Suggs, and Banchero played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Okeke, Anthony, Queen, Suggs, and Banchero played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Schofield, Anthony, Queen, Banchero, and Houstan played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Wagner, Okeke, Queen, Banchero, and Houstan played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Denver Nuggets
Braun, Watson, Jackson, Gordon, and Jokic played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Watson, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Murray, Porter, Jackson, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Porter, Watson, Jackson, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
