Win probability changed during the game. · 8 January 2024
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 47 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Brown · Porzingis · White · Horford · Kornet
Closing lineup · IND
Turner · Nesmith · Mathurin · Hield · McConnell
Jaylen Brown
38′ · -1
Kristaps Porzingis
38′ · +1
Jrue Holiday
38′ · 0
Derrick White
36′ · -2
Al Horford
32′ · -9
Payton Pritchard
23′ · -2
Oshae Brissett
16′ · +5
Dalano Banton
4′ · +2
Luke Kornet
10′ · -3
Svi Mykhailiuk
5′ · -1
Myles Turner
35′ · -1
Jalen Smith
27′ · +5
Aaron Nesmith
26′ · +1
Bruce Brown
21′ · +1
Tyrese Haliburton
13′ · -4
Bennedict Mathurin
29′ · -2
Obi Toppin
20′ · +3
Buddy Hield
25′ · +7
T.J. McConnell
25′ · +10
Isaiah Jackson
7′ · -2
Andrew Nembhard
12′ · -8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, White, Horford, Holiday, and Porzingis played 21.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Brown, Brissett, Pritchard, Holiday, and Porzingis played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
White, Kornet, Pritchard, Horford, and Holiday played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Indiana Pacers
Turner, Brown, Nesmith, Smith, and McConnell played 10.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Turner, Brown, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Smith played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Hield, Nesmith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
White, Kornet, Mykhailiuk, Pritchard, and Horford played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brown, Brissett, Pritchard, Banton, and Porzingis played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, White, Brissett, Holiday, and Porzingis played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Indiana Pacers
Hield, Nembhard, Toppin, Smith, and Mathurin played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hield, Toppin, Jackson, Mathurin, and McConnell played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Turner, Hield, Toppin, Haliburton, and Mathurin played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hield, Nembhard, Toppin, Jackson, and Mathurin played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Turner, Hield, Toppin, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Turner, Nembhard, Haliburton, Smith, and Mathurin played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Brown, Nembhard, Nesmith, and Smith played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Hield, Nembhard, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Brown, Toppin, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

