SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 8 January 2024

BOS131–133IND
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 47 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ IND winsBOS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when BOS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · BOS

Jaylen Brown
Kristaps Porzingis
Derrick White
Al Horford
Luke Kornet

Brown · Porzingis · White · Horford · Kornet

Closing lineup · IND

Myles Turner
Aaron Nesmith
Bennedict Mathurin
Buddy Hield
T.J. McConnell

Turner · Nesmith · Mathurin · Hield · McConnell

Q1Q2Q3Q4
BOS
Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown

38′ · -1

Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps Porzingis

38′ · +1

Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday

38′ · 0

Derrick White

Derrick White

36′ · -2

Al Horford

Al Horford

32′ · -9

Payton Pritchard

Payton Pritchard

23′ · -2

Oshae Brissett

Oshae Brissett

16′ · +5

Dalano Banton

Dalano Banton

4′ · +2

Luke Kornet

Luke Kornet

10′ · -3

Svi Mykhailiuk

Svi Mykhailiuk

5′ · -1

IND
Myles Turner

Myles Turner

35′ · -1

Jalen Smith

Jalen Smith

27′ · +5

Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith

26′ · +1

Bruce Brown

Bruce Brown

21′ · +1

Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton

13′ · -4

Bennedict Mathurin

Bennedict Mathurin

29′ · -2

Obi Toppin

Obi Toppin

20′ · +3

Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield

25′ · +7

T.J. McConnell

T.J. McConnell

25′ · +10

Isaiah Jackson

Isaiah Jackson

7′ · -2

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard

12′ · -8

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and IND.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Boston Celtics

  • Brown, White, Horford, Holiday, and Porzingis played 21.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Brown, Brissett, Pritchard, Holiday, and Porzingis played 8.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • White, Kornet, Pritchard, Horford, and Holiday played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Brown, Nesmith, Smith, and McConnell played 10.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Turner, Brown, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Smith played 7.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Turner, Hield, Nesmith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 6.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Boston Celtics

  • White, Kornet, Mykhailiuk, Pritchard, and Horford played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brown, Brissett, Pritchard, Banton, and Porzingis played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brown, White, Brissett, Holiday, and Porzingis played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

Indiana Pacers

  • Hield, Nembhard, Toppin, Smith, and Mathurin played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hield, Toppin, Jackson, Mathurin, and McConnell played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Turner, Hield, Toppin, Haliburton, and Mathurin played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hield, Nembhard, Toppin, Jackson, and Mathurin played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Turner, Hield, Toppin, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Haliburton, Smith, and Mathurin played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Turner, Brown, Nembhard, Nesmith, and Smith played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Turner, Hield, Nembhard, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Turner, Brown, Toppin, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
16.009
89.3% of capacity
Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
Scoring
264
combined points
35.6 above the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

23 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:00.6
Kristaps Porzingis → Bennedict Mathurin
Porzingis (BOS) is above the ball and legally contests Mathurin's (IND) shot attempt, with some incidental arm contact occurring concurrent with the block. Referees conducted a replay review to determine if the foul was called with no time remaining on the clock (00:00), and determined it was called before the expiration of time. The clock was reset with 0.6 remaining on the clock. The foul itself was not a reviewable matter under this replay trigger.
Foul: Offensive · 00:02.0
Myles Turner → Derrick White
Turner (IND) turns his lower body into White (BOS) and delivers contact during the screen.