Win probability changed during the game. · 14 January 2024
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when SAC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAC
Sabonis · Fox · Huerter · Monk · Lyles
Closing lineup · MIL
Beasley · Lillard · Lopez · Antetokounmpo · Connaughton
Domantas Sabonis
45′ · +7
De'Aaron Fox
43′ · -3
Kevin Huerter
39′ · +2
Harrison Barnes
32′ · -1
Keegan Murray
19′ · +1
Malik Monk
36′ · -11
Trey Lyles
33′ · +10
Alex Len
11′ · -7
Sasha Vezenkov
6′ · -5
Malik Beasley
45′ · -1
Damian Lillard
41′ · -6
Brook Lopez
40′ · +5
Giannis Antetokounmpo
40′ · -13
Andre Jackson Jr.
10′ · +2
Bobby Portis
26′ · +10
Pat Connaughton
33′ · +5
AJ Green
18′ · -4
Cameron Payne
12′ · +7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and MIL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Sacramento Kings
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, and Huerter played 9.8 minutes together.
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, and Barnes played 9.4 minutes together.
Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 6.5 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Sacramento Kings lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Milwaukee Bucks
Connaughton, Beasley, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 14.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Jackson, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Green, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Murray, and Barnes played 4.8 minutes together.
Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Murray, and Len played 3.3 minutes together.
Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, and Murray played 3.2 minutes together.
Fox, Monk, Vezenkov, Barnes, and Len played 2.9 minutes together.
Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Len played 2.8 minutes together.
Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Vezenkov, and Huerter played 2.0 minutes together.
Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.
Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 1.6 minutes together.
Sabonis, Monk, Vezenkov, Huerter, and Barnes played 1.5 minutes together.
Fox, Monk, Huerter, Barnes, and Len played 1.5 minutes together.
Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Barnes played 1.1 minutes together.
Milwaukee Bucks
Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, Lopez, and Lillard played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Payne, Portis, Connaughton, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Payne, Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, and Lopez played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Payne, Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, and Antetokounmpo played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Portis, Connaughton, Green, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Portis, Beasley, Jackson, Lopez, and Lillard played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Payne, Portis, Beasley, Green, and Lopez played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Portis, Beasley, Green, Lopez, and Lillard played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Beasley, Green, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

