SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 14 January 2024

SAC142–143MIL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 33 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIL winsSAC wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when SAC does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · SAC

Domantas Sabonis
De'Aaron Fox
Kevin Huerter
Malik Monk
Trey Lyles

Sabonis · Fox · Huerter · Monk · Lyles

Closing lineup · MIL

Malik Beasley
Damian Lillard
Brook Lopez
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Pat Connaughton

Beasley · Lillard · Lopez · Antetokounmpo · Connaughton

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
SAC
Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis

45′ · +7

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

43′ · -3

Kevin Huerter

Kevin Huerter

39′ · +2

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

32′ · -1

Keegan Murray

Keegan Murray

19′ · +1

Malik Monk

Malik Monk

36′ · -11

Trey Lyles

Trey Lyles

33′ · +10

Alex Len

Alex Len

11′ · -7

Sasha Vezenkov

Sasha Vezenkov

6′ · -5

MIL
Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

45′ · -1

Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard

41′ · -6

Brook Lopez

Brook Lopez

40′ · +5

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

40′ · -13

Andre Jackson Jr.

Andre Jackson Jr.

10′ · +2

Bobby Portis

Bobby Portis

26′ · +10

Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton

33′ · +5

AJ Green

AJ Green

18′ · -4

Cameron Payne

Cameron Payne

12′ · +7

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAC and MIL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Sacramento Kings

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, and Huerter played 9.8 minutes together.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, and Barnes played 9.4 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Fox, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 6.5 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Sacramento Kings lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Connaughton, Beasley, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 14.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Beasley, Jackson, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Green, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Sacramento Kings

  • Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Murray, and Barnes played 4.8 minutes together.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Murray, and Len played 3.3 minutes together.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, and Murray played 3.2 minutes together.

  • Fox, Monk, Vezenkov, Barnes, and Len played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Lyles, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Len played 2.8 minutes together.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Vezenkov, and Huerter played 2.0 minutes together.

  • Lyles, Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Monk, Huerter, Murray, and Barnes played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Monk, Vezenkov, Huerter, and Barnes played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Fox, Monk, Huerter, Barnes, and Len played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Huerter, and Barnes played 1.1 minutes together.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, Lopez, and Lillard played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Payne, Portis, Connaughton, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Payne, Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, and Lopez played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Payne, Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, and Antetokounmpo played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Green, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Portis, Beasley, Jackson, Lopez, and Lillard played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Payne, Portis, Beasley, Green, and Lopez played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Portis, Beasley, Green, Lopez, and Lillard played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Portis, Beasley, Green, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.612
101.6% of capacity
Fiserv Forum · Milwaukee
Scoring
285
combined points
56.6 above the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

24 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors