SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 17 January 2024

ORL104–106ATL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 52 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ ATL winsORL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when ORL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ORL

Paolo Banchero
Jalen Suggs
Markelle Fultz
Joe Ingles
Wendell Carter Jr.

Banchero · Suggs · Fultz · Ingles · Carter

Closing lineup · ATL

Trae Young
Jalen Johnson
Dejounte Murray
Saddiq Bey
Onyeka Okongwu

Young · Johnson · Murray · Bey · Okongwu

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ORL
Paolo Banchero

Paolo Banchero

38′ · -10

Chuma Okeke

Chuma Okeke

30′ · -8

Jalen Suggs

Jalen Suggs

28′ · -1

Goga Bitadze

Goga Bitadze

24′ · -2

Caleb Houstan

Caleb Houstan

14′ · +6

Markelle Fultz

Markelle Fultz

30′ · -8

Joe Ingles

Joe Ingles

20′ · +3

Wendell Carter Jr.

Wendell Carter Jr.

24′ · 0

Cole Anthony

Cole Anthony

22′ · +2

Jonathan Isaac

Jonathan Isaac

10′ · +8

Anthony Black

Anthony Black

0′ · 0

ATL
Trae Young

Trae Young

39′ · +2

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson

38′ · +9

Dejounte Murray

Dejounte Murray

36′ · -2

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey

35′ · -10

Clint Capela

Clint Capela

27′ · -4

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

27′ · +7

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Bogdan Bogdanovic

24′ · +4

Garrison Mathews

Garrison Mathews

13′ · +4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and ATL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Orlando Magic

  • Bitadze, Okeke, Suggs, Banchero, and Houstan played 13.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Fultz, Isaac, Carter, Anthony, and Ingles played 9.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Fultz, Carter, Anthony, Banchero, and Ingles played 7.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Murray, Young, Bey, Johnson, and Capela played 19.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Young, Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 11.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Murray, Okongwu, Bey, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 6.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Orlando Magic

  • Fultz, Bitadze, Okeke, Suggs, and Banchero played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bitadze, Okeke, Anthony, Suggs, and Banchero played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Fultz, Carter, Okeke, Suggs, and Banchero played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Fultz, Carter, Okeke, Banchero, and Ingles played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Fultz, Carter, Okeke, Anthony, and Banchero played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Fultz, Carter, Suggs, Banchero, and Ingles played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Murray, Young, Okongwu, Bey, and Johnson played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Murray, Okongwu, Bey, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Murray, Young, Bey, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
14.541
85.3% of capacity
State Farm Arena · Atlanta
Scoring
210
combined points
18.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

17 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 00:42
Trae Young → Jalen Suggs
Young (ATL) swipes down and initiates contact with Suggs' (ORL) face, prior to the contact with the ball during his steal attempt.
Foul: Shooting · 01:47.4
Wendell Carter Jr. → Jalen Johnson
Carter Jr.'s (ORL) hand slides off the ball and onto Johnson's (ATL) arm, which affects Johnson's play at the basket.