Win probability changed during the game. · 17 January 2024
It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 52 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Banchero · Suggs · Fultz · Ingles · Carter
Closing lineup · ATL
Young · Johnson · Murray · Bey · Okongwu
Paolo Banchero
38′ · -10
Chuma Okeke
30′ · -8
Jalen Suggs
28′ · -1
Goga Bitadze
24′ · -2
Caleb Houstan
14′ · +6
Markelle Fultz
30′ · -8
Joe Ingles
20′ · +3
Wendell Carter Jr.
24′ · 0
Cole Anthony
22′ · +2
Jonathan Isaac
10′ · +8
Anthony Black
0′ · 0
Trae Young
39′ · +2
Jalen Johnson
38′ · +9
Dejounte Murray
36′ · -2
Saddiq Bey
35′ · -10
Clint Capela
27′ · -4
Onyeka Okongwu
27′ · +7
Bogdan Bogdanovic
24′ · +4
Garrison Mathews
13′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and ATL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Bitadze, Okeke, Suggs, Banchero, and Houstan played 13.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Fultz, Isaac, Carter, Anthony, and Ingles played 9.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Fultz, Carter, Anthony, Banchero, and Ingles played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Young, Bey, Johnson, and Capela played 19.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Young, Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 11.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Okongwu, Bey, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Fultz, Bitadze, Okeke, Suggs, and Banchero played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bitadze, Okeke, Anthony, Suggs, and Banchero played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Fultz, Carter, Okeke, Suggs, and Banchero played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Fultz, Carter, Okeke, Banchero, and Ingles played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Fultz, Carter, Okeke, Anthony, and Banchero played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Fultz, Carter, Suggs, Banchero, and Ingles played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Young, Okongwu, Bey, and Johnson played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Okongwu, Bey, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Young, Bey, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

