Win probability changed during the game. · 19 January 2024
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 36 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when ATL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ATL
Murray · Bey · Johnson · Capela · Okongwu
Closing lineup · MIA
Adebayo · Butler · Herro · Martin · Robinson
Dejounte Murray
40′ · +3
Saddiq Bey
36′ · -2
Bogdan Bogdanovic
35′ · +1
Jalen Johnson
34′ · +1
Clint Capela
22′ · -12
Garrison Mathews
20′ · +12
Patty Mills
18′ · -7
Onyeka Okongwu
26′ · +13
Trent Forrest
10′ · -4
Bam Adebayo
39′ · +8
Jimmy Butler III
36′ · 0
Tyler Herro
35′ · 0
Caleb Martin
27′ · +3
Nikola Jovic
15′ · +4
Kevin Love
12′ · -11
Kyle Lowry
24′ · -7
Josh Richardson
21′ · -9
Duncan Robinson
22′ · +6
Haywood Highsmith
10′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and MIA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Bey, Johnson, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 19.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Murray, Mathews, Okongwu, Bey, and Mills played 8.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Okongwu, Forrest, Johnson, Mills, and Bogdanovic played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Miami Heat
Adebayo, Martin, Herro, Jovic, and Butler played 13.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Richardson, Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, and Lowry played 9.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Herro, and Butler played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Murray, Mathews, Bey, Mills, and Capela played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Mathews, Okongwu, Forrest, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Mathews, Okongwu, Bey, and Johnson played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Mathews, Okongwu, Bey, and Bogdanovic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Miami Heat
Richardson, Adebayo, Herro, Lowry, and Butler played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Richardson, Adebayo, Herro, Lowry, and Love played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Richardson, Robinson, Lowry, Love, and Butler played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Martin, Herro, Jovic, Love, and Butler played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Richardson, Herro, Lowry, Love, and Butler played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Martin, Robinson, Herro, Love, and Butler played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Martin, Herro, Lowry, Love, and Butler played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Adebayo, Martin, Herro, Lowry, and Butler played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Richardson, Adebayo, Robinson, Lowry, and Butler played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

