SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 19 January 2024

ATL109–108MIA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 36 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIA winsATL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when ATL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ATL

Dejounte Murray
Saddiq Bey
Jalen Johnson
Clint Capela
Onyeka Okongwu

Murray · Bey · Johnson · Capela · Okongwu

Closing lineup · MIA

Bam Adebayo
Jimmy Butler III
Tyler Herro
Caleb Martin
Duncan Robinson

Adebayo · Butler · Herro · Martin · Robinson

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ATL
Dejounte Murray

Dejounte Murray

40′ · +3

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey

36′ · -2

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Bogdan Bogdanovic

35′ · +1

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson

34′ · +1

Clint Capela

Clint Capela

22′ · -12

Garrison Mathews

Garrison Mathews

20′ · +12

Patty Mills

Patty Mills

18′ · -7

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu

26′ · +13

Trent Forrest

Trent Forrest

10′ · -4

MIA
Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo

39′ · +8

Jimmy Butler III

Jimmy Butler III

36′ · 0

Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro

35′ · 0

Caleb Martin

Caleb Martin

27′ · +3

Nikola Jovic

Nikola Jovic

15′ · +4

Kevin Love

Kevin Love

12′ · -11

Kyle Lowry

Kyle Lowry

24′ · -7

Josh Richardson

Josh Richardson

21′ · -9

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

22′ · +6

Haywood Highsmith

Haywood Highsmith

10′ · +1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ATL and MIA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Murray, Bey, Johnson, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 19.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Murray, Mathews, Okongwu, Bey, and Mills played 8.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Okongwu, Forrest, Johnson, Mills, and Bogdanovic played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Miami Heat

  • Adebayo, Martin, Herro, Jovic, and Butler played 13.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Richardson, Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, and Lowry played 9.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Adebayo, Martin, Robinson, Herro, and Butler played 6.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Atlanta Hawks

  • Murray, Mathews, Okongwu, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Murray, Mathews, Bey, Mills, and Capela played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Mathews, Okongwu, Forrest, Johnson, and Bogdanovic played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Murray, Mathews, Okongwu, Bey, and Johnson played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Murray, Mathews, Okongwu, Bey, and Bogdanovic played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

Miami Heat

  • Richardson, Adebayo, Herro, Lowry, and Butler played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Richardson, Adebayo, Herro, Lowry, and Love played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Richardson, Robinson, Lowry, Love, and Butler played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Martin, Herro, Jovic, Love, and Butler played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Richardson, Herro, Lowry, Love, and Butler played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Martin, Robinson, Herro, Love, and Butler played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Martin, Herro, Lowry, Love, and Butler played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Adebayo, Martin, Herro, Lowry, and Butler played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Richardson, Adebayo, Robinson, Lowry, and Butler played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
20.040
102.2% of capacity
Kaseya Center · Miami
Scoring
217
combined points
11.4 below the season average (228.4)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

15 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:11.1
Bogdan Bogdanovic → Heat
Bogdanovic (ATL) fails to fully clear the lane and is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.
Foul: Shooting · 01:54.6
Saddiq Bey → Jimmy Butler
Bey (ATL) is in a legal guarding position during Butler's (MIA) drive to the basket and contact to his head occurs when Butler leans in for the shot attempt. Contact to an opponent's head/face can be deemed marginal when the result of a natural basketball move, provided the contact is not disproportionate or uncontrolled.