Win probability changed during the game. · 26 January 2024
It was more exciting than 67% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Durant · Booker · Allen · Beal · Gordon
Closing lineup · IND
Nesmith · Siakam · Nembhard · Mathurin · Toppin
Kevin Durant
39′ · -9
Devin Booker
38′ · +1
Grayson Allen
37′ · -8
Bradley Beal
34′ · -4
Jusuf Nurkic
20′ · -3
Eric Gordon
30′ · 0
Drew Eubanks
16′ · +12
Keita Bates-Diop
9′ · +7
Josh Okogie
13′ · -1
Chimezie Metu
2′ · -5
Aaron Nesmith
34′ · +7
Pascal Siakam
33′ · +9
Andrew Nembhard
30′ · +7
Myles Turner
18′ · -2
Buddy Hield
14′ · -5
Bennedict Mathurin
21′ · -2
Jalen Smith
20′ · -5
T.J. McConnell
18′ · -5
Ben Sheppard
18′ · -1
Obi Toppin
33′ · +7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 10.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 7.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Booker, Allen, Durant, Gordon, and Nurkic played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Indiana Pacers
Toppin, Smith, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 9.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Toppin, and Nesmith played 8.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Turner, Hield, Siakam, Nembhard, and Nesmith played 6.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Booker, Allen, Eubanks, Durant, and Beal played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Okogie, Eubanks, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, Bates-Diop, Eubanks, Gordon, and Beal played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Allen, Okogie, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Metu, Okogie, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Booker, Allen, Bates-Diop, Eubanks, and Gordon played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Allen, Bates-Diop, Okogie, and Gordon played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Allen, Okogie, Eubanks, Durant, and Gordon played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Eubanks, Durant, Gordon, and Beal played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Nembhard, Toppin, Nesmith, and Mathurin played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Siakam, Nembhard, Toppin, Nesmith, and Sheppard played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hield, Toppin, Smith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hield, Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, and Smith played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Smith, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Hield, Toppin, Nesmith, Smith, and McConnell played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Toppin, Nesmith, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Nembhard, Nesmith, Smith, and Mathurin played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

