Win probability changed during the game. · 27 January 2024
It was more exciting than 99% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 34 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
James · Reaves · Davis · Prince · Vanderbilt
Closing lineup · GSW
Green · Kuminga · Curry · Podziemski · Joseph
D'Angelo Russell
49′ · +12
LeBron James
48′ · -6
Austin Reaves
47′ · +4
Anthony Davis
45′ · -2
Taurean Prince
24′ · -21
Jarred Vanderbilt
41′ · +29
Max Christie
8′ · -3
Rui Hachimura
18′ · +6
Christian Wood
11′ · -14
Klay Thompson
47′ · +2
Draymond Green
46′ · +31
Jonathan Kuminga
43′ · -9
Stephen Curry
43′ · -2
Andrew Wiggins
41′ · +1
Brandin Podziemski
28′ · -7
Dario Saric
15′ · -1
Cory Joseph
15′ · 0
Kevon Looney
5′ · -14
Trayce Jackson-Davis
6′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Russell, Vanderbilt, Reaves, Davis, and James played 18.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Russell, Prince, Reaves, Davis, and James played 12.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 18 points.
Russell, Prince, Vanderbilt, Reaves, and Davis played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Golden State Warriors
Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, Green, and Wiggins played 27.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 16 points.
Kuminga, Podziemski, Curry, Green, and Wiggins played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Jackson-Davis, Podziemski, Thompson, Joseph, and Green played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Russell, Wood, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and James played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Prince, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, and James played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Wood, Prince, Reaves, Davis, and James played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Russell, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Reaves, and James played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Wood, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Reaves, and Christie played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Russell, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Christie, and Davis played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Reaves, Christie, and Davis played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Vanderbilt, Reaves, Christie, Davis, and James played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Russell, Wood, Prince, Hachimura, and James played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Wood, Vanderbilt, Hachimura, Christie, and James played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Golden State Warriors
Kuminga, Podziemski, Thompson, Joseph, and Saric played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Podziemski, Thompson, Joseph, Green, and Saric played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Looney, Podziemski, Thompson, Joseph, and Saric played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Podziemski, Curry, Green, Wiggins, and Saric played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Kuminga, Jackson-Davis, Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Kuminga, Podziemski, Curry, Thompson, and Saric played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Kuminga, Podziemski, Curry, Wiggins, and Saric played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Looney, Kuminga, Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
⚠️ Optical tracking did not capture every player in this game.

