Win probability changed during the game. · 2 February 2024
The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
The last point of this curve falls on SAS's side, but NOP won 114-113. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAS leads and falls when NOP does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · NOP
Williamson · Ingram · Marshall · Daniels · Alvarado
Closing lineup · SAS
Vassell · Jones · Sochan · Wembanyama · McDermott
CJ McCollum
39′ · +13
Zion Williamson
36′ · +15
Brandon Ingram
36′ · -6
Trey Murphy III
27′ · -18
Jonas Valanciunas
27′ · -15
Naji Marshall
17′ · -19
Jordan Hawkins
11′ · 0
Cody Zeller
8′ · +6
Dyson Daniels
21′ · +20
Jose Alvarado
19′ · +9
Devin Vassell
36′ · +7
Tre Jones
35′ · -4
Jeremy Sochan
31′ · +11
Julian Champagnie
30′ · -3
Victor Wembanyama
28′ · -9
Zach Collins
20′ · +8
Cedi Osman
19′ · -6
Blake Wesley
13′ · +3
Malaki Branham
16′ · -4
Doug McDermott
12′ · -8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NOP and SAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Williamson, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 13.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Williamson, Alvarado, Daniels, and McCollum played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Williamson, Daniels, Hawkins, McCollum, and Zeller played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, Sochan, and Wembanyama played 14.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Osman, Collins, Vassell, Wesley, and Sochan played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Osman, Jones, Branham, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
New Orleans Pelicans
Ingram, Alvarado, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, Hawkins, and Zeller played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Ingram, Marshall, Hawkins, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Ingram, Marshall, Murphy, Daniels, and Valanciunas played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, and Alvarado played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Williamson, Marshall, Murphy, Alvarado, and McCollum played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Williamson, Marshall, Alvarado, Daniels, and McCollum played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Williamson, Murphy, Alvarado, and McCollum played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Ingram, Marshall, Murphy, Alvarado, and Valanciunas played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Ingram, Williamson, Daniels, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Ingram, Marshall, Murphy, Valanciunas, and McCollum played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
San Antonio Spurs
Osman, Collins, Vassell, Champagnie, and Wesley played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Collins, Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, and Sochan played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Jones, Champagnie, Branham, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Collins, Vassell, Jones, Champagnie, and Branham played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Osman, Vassell, Jones, Branham, and Wembanyama played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Champagnie, Sochan, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jones, Branham, Sochan, Wembanyama, and McDermott played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Collins, Vassell, Branham, Wesley, and Sochan played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

