Win probability changed during the game. · 12 February 2024
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 18 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when NYK does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · NYK
Hart · Brunson · Achiuwa · Burks · McBride
Closing lineup · HOU
Smith · Brooks · Sengun · Green · Holiday
Josh Hart
42′ · +2
Donte DiVincenzo
41′ · +2
Jalen Brunson
39′ · -1
Precious Achiuwa
39′ · +3
Jericho Sims
29′ · +7
Bojan Bogdanovic
23′ · -13
Alec Burks
17′ · -3
Miles McBride
5′ · -8
Taj Gibson
5′ · +1
Jabari Smith Jr.
38′ · -2
Amen Thompson
38′ · -5
Dillon Brooks
37′ · -11
Alperen Sengun
36′ · -6
Jalen Green
30′ · -6
Aaron Holiday
26′ · +8
Jae'Sean Tate
12′ · +6
Jeff Green
15′ · +11
Nate Williams
8′ · +15
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. NYK and HOU.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
New York Knicks
Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, and Sims played 19.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Sims, and Gibson played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Hart, Brunson, Achiuwa, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Houston Rockets
Brooks, Green, Sengun, Smith, and Thompson played 17.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 14 points.
Brooks, Holiday, Green, Tate, and Sengun played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Holiday, Tate, Smith, Thompson, and Green played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
New York Knicks
Hart, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, McBride, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Sims, and Bogdanovic played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, and Bogdanovic played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Brunson, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Hart, Achiuwa, McBride, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Houston Rockets
Brooks, Holiday, Sengun, Smith, and Thompson played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Holiday, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Green played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Holiday, Smith, Williams, Thompson, and Green played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Brooks, Green, Sengun, Williams, and Thompson played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brooks, Holiday, Smith, Thompson, and Green played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Brooks, Holiday, Smith, Williams, and Green played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Brooks, Green, Sengun, Smith, and Williams played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

