Win probability changed during the game. · 24 February 2024
It was more exciting than 71% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Wagner · Banchero · Suggs · Harris · Carter
Closing lineup · DET
Duren · Fontecchio · Cunningham · Thompson · Grimes
Franz Wagner
32′ · 0
Paolo Banchero
29′ · +2
Jalen Suggs
26′ · -3
Gary Harris
25′ · -2
Wendell Carter Jr.
22′ · -7
Goga Bitadze
8′ · +3
Anthony Black
22′ · +8
Cole Anthony
21′ · +7
Jonathan Isaac
20′ · -3
Joe Ingles
16′ · +3
Moritz Wagner
17′ · +7
Jaden Ivey
34′ · +1
Jalen Duren
33′ · -4
Simone Fontecchio
31′ · +1
Cade Cunningham
31′ · -1
Ausar Thompson
21′ · +6
Quentin Grimes
26′ · -9
Evan Fournier
19′ · -2
James Wiseman
15′ · +1
Malachi Flynn
17′ · -2
Troy Brown Jr.
13′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and DET.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Carter, Wagner, Suggs, Banchero, and Harris played 19.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Anthony, Black, and Ingles played 11.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bitadze, Wagner, Suggs, Banchero, and Harris played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Detroit Pistons
Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Fontecchio, and Thompson played 17.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Brown, Grimes, Wiseman, Flynn, and Fournier played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Grimes, Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, and Fontecchio played 9.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Isaac, Bitadze, Anthony, Black, and Ingles played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Wagner, Anthony, Wagner, Banchero, and Black played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Isaac, Carter, Anthony, Black, and Ingles played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Anthony, Wagner, and Black played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Isaac, Carter, Wagner, Suggs, and Black played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Anthony, Wagner, and Banchero played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Detroit Pistons
Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Thompson, and Fournier played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Grimes, Wiseman, Flynn, Fontecchio, and Fournier played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Grimes, Flynn, Ivey, and Duren played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Grimes, Wiseman, Flynn, Ivey, and Fournier played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Flynn, Ivey, Duren, Thompson, and Fournier played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
