Win probability changed during the game. · 26 February 2024
It was more exciting than 70% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NYK leads and falls when DET does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DET
Thompson · Cunningham · Fontecchio · Duren · Grimes
Closing lineup · NYK
Hart · Brunson · Achiuwa · DiVincenzo · Hartenstein
Ausar Thompson
36′ · +3
Cade Cunningham
36′ · +3
Simone Fontecchio
33′ · -2
Jalen Duren
31′ · +3
Jaden Ivey
24′ · +4
Quentin Grimes
24′ · -6
James Wiseman
17′ · -5
Evan Fournier
20′ · -1
Malachi Flynn
12′ · -5
Tosan Evbuomwan
8′ · -4
Josh Hart
42′ · -1
Jalen Brunson
40′ · +3
Precious Achiuwa
34′ · +9
Donte DiVincenzo
32′ · -6
Isaiah Hartenstein
27′ · +5
Jericho Sims
20′ · +2
Alec Burks
14′ · +8
Bojan Bogdanovic
22′ · -9
Miles McBride
10′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DET and NYK.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Detroit Pistons
Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Fontecchio, and Thompson played 21.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Grimes, Wiseman, Flynn, Evbuomwan, and Fournier played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Grimes, Cunningham, Duren, Fontecchio, and Thompson played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
New York Knicks
Hartenstein, Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, and Achiuwa played 18.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, and Sims played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brunson, Achiuwa, Sims, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Detroit Pistons
Grimes, Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, and Fournier played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Grimes, Wiseman, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Fournier played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Grimes, Wiseman, Flynn, Thompson, and Fournier played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Wiseman, Flynn, Ivey, Thompson, and Fournier played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Grimes, Wiseman, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Thompson played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Grimes, Cunningham, Duren, Fontecchio, and Fournier played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
New York Knicks
Hartenstein, Hart, McBride, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hart, McBride, Sims, Burks, and Bogdanovic played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Sims, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Hart, Brunson, McBride, Sims, and Bogdanovic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hartenstein, Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, and Bogdanovic played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hartenstein, Hart, DiVincenzo, McBride, and Bogdanovic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Hart, Brunson, DiVincenzo, Achiuwa, and Bogdanovic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Hart, Brunson, Achiuwa, Sims, and Burks played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

