Win probability changed during the game. · 27 February 2024
It was more exciting than 80% of NBA games since 2017
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CLE leads and falls when DAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DAL
Doncic · Irving · Washington · Hardaway · Kleber
Closing lineup · CLE
Allen · Mobley · Strus · LeVert · Okoro
Luka Doncic
41′ · +13
Kyrie Irving
39′ · -8
P.J. Washington
35′ · +17
Josh Green
29′ · -11
Dereck Lively II
22′ · -5
Tim Hardaway Jr.
26′ · +10
Derrick Jones Jr.
9′ · -5
Daniel Gafford
7′ · -7
Maxi Kleber
27′ · -3
Jaden Hardy
5′ · -11
Donovan Mitchell
38′ · -14
Jarrett Allen
33′ · -12
Darius Garland
32′ · +12
Evan Mobley
28′ · -2
Max Strus
26′ · -10
Caris LeVert
28′ · +16
Dean Wade
9′ · -9
Isaac Okoro
25′ · +12
Georges Niang
21′ · +17
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DAL and CLE.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Dallas Mavericks
Washington, Doncic, Green, Lively, and Irving played 9.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Kleber, Washington, Doncic, Irving, and Hardaway played 8.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Kleber, Green, Hardy, Lively, and Irving played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell, Allen, Strus, Garland, and Mobley played 13.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 15 points.
LeVert, Niang, Garland, Okoro, and Mobley played 9.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 17 points.
LeVert, Mitchell, Allen, Strus, and Wade played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Dallas Mavericks
Washington, Doncic, Lively, Irving, and Hardaway played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Kleber, Washington, Doncic, Green, and Irving played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Kleber, Doncic, Gafford, and Hardaway played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Washington, Doncic, Gafford, Green, and Irving played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Doncic, Green, Lively, Irving, and Hardaway played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jones, Kleber, Washington, Doncic, and Hardaway played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Kleber, Washington, Doncic, Green, and Hardaway played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Jones, Kleber, Green, Irving, and Hardaway played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Cleveland Cavaliers
LeVert, Mitchell, Allen, Strus, and Garland played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Niang, Mitchell, Garland, Okoro, and Mobley played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
LeVert, Mitchell, Allen, Wade, and Okoro played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
LeVert, Niang, Mitchell, Allen, and Okoro played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Niang, Mitchell, Allen, Strus, and Okoro played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
