Win probability changed during the game. · 17 March 2024
It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 26 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when DEN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · DEN
Jokic · Porter · Murray · Gordon · Caldwell-Pope
Closing lineup · DAL
Doncic · Irving · Washington · Hardaway · Kleber
Nikola Jokic
39′ · +10
Michael Porter Jr.
37′ · +6
Jamal Murray
36′ · 0
Aaron Gordon
34′ · +12
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
32′ · +7
Reggie Jackson
13′ · 0
Christian Braun
19′ · -11
Peyton Watson
14′ · -14
Justin Holiday
8′ · -8
Zeke Nnaji
9′ · -12
Luka Doncic
40′ · -1
Kyrie Irving
40′ · +6
P.J. Washington
31′ · +7
Daniel Gafford
24′ · +13
Derrick Jones Jr.
24′ · +20
Dereck Lively II
23′ · -18
Dante Exum
18′ · -10
Tim Hardaway Jr.
15′ · +2
Maxi Kleber
21′ · -8
Jaden Hardy
4′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. DEN and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Porter, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 24.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Nnaji, Braun, Watson, and Holiday played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Porter, Braun, Watson, Jackson, and Jokic played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Jones, Washington, Doncic, Gafford, and Irving played 18.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 18 points.
Kleber, Lively, Irving, Hardaway, and Exum played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Washington, Doncic, Lively, Irving, and Exum played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Denver Nuggets
Porter, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Porter, Braun, Jackson, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Nnaji, Braun, Caldwell-Pope, and Gordon played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Dallas Mavericks
Kleber, Doncic, Lively, Hardaway, and Exum played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jones, Washington, Doncic, Gafford, and Hardy played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Kleber, Washington, Doncic, Gafford, and Irving played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Kleber, Doncic, Lively, Irving, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kleber, Doncic, Lively, Irving, and Exum played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Jones, Kleber, Doncic, Lively, and Irving played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.
