Win probability changed during the game. · 28 March 2024
It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ATL leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Tatum · Porzingis · White · Brown · Kornet
Closing lineup · ATL
Murray · Hunter · Capela · Fernando · Matthews
Jayson Tatum
45′ · -11
Kristaps Porzingis
41′ · -4
Derrick White
41′ · +3
Jaylen Brown
39′ · +8
Jrue Holiday
37′ · -1
Sam Hauser
23′ · +3
Xavier Tillman
9′ · +5
Payton Pritchard
19′ · -11
Luke Kornet
13′ · +3
Dejounte Murray
47′ · +3
Bogdan Bogdanovic
43′ · +3
De'Andre Hunter
40′ · +1
Vit Krejci
35′ · 0
Clint Capela
33′ · 0
Garrison Mathews
17′ · 0
Bruno Fernando
20′ · +1
Wesley Matthews
24′ · -1
Trent Forrest
6′ · -2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and ATL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Holiday, and Porzingis played 25.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and Holiday played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, White, Tillman, Hauser, and Porzingis played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Hunter, Krejci, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 20.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Murray, Hunter, Matthews, Capela, and Bogdanovic played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Hunter, Mathews, Krejci, and Capela played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, and Hauser played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Tatum, Pritchard, Tillman, Hauser, and Porzingis played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Tatum, White, Hauser, Holiday, and Porzingis played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Pritchard, and Porzingis played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, White, Kornet, Pritchard, and Hauser played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Tatum, White, Pritchard, Holiday, and Porzingis played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Atlanta Hawks
Murray, Fernando, Mathews, Matthews, and Bogdanovic played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Fernando, Mathews, Forrest, Matthews, and Bogdanovic played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Fernando, Forrest, Krejci, Matthews, and Bogdanovic played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Fernando, Hunter, Mathews, and Krejci played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Fernando, Krejci, Matthews, and Bogdanovic played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Fernando, Hunter, Mathews, and Matthews played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Fernando, Hunter, Krejci, and Bogdanovic played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

