Win probability changed during the game. · 29 April 2024
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when LAL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · LAL
James · Davis · Hachimura · Reaves · Prince
Closing lineup · DEN
Gordon · Porter · Jokic · Murray · Caldwell-Pope
LeBron James
44′ · +3
Anthony Davis
40′ · -4
D'Angelo Russell
39′ · +7
Rui Hachimura
34′ · -11
Austin Reaves
34′ · +1
Taurean Prince
19′ · -5
Gabe Vincent
9′ · -5
Spencer Dinwiddie
14′ · -5
Jaxson Hayes
7′ · +6
Aaron Gordon
46′ · +3
Michael Porter Jr.
46′ · +12
Nikola Jokic
41′ · +7
Jamal Murray
41′ · +3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
33′ · -1
Peyton Watson
5′ · -5
Justin Holiday
4′ · -10
Reggie Jackson
18′ · -2
Christian Braun
6′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Los Angeles Lakers
Russell, Hachimura, Reaves, Davis, and James played 25.2 minutes together.
Russell, Prince, Hayes, Dinwiddie, and James played 6.8 minutes together.
Prince, Vincent, Reaves, Davis, and James played 3.6 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Los Angeles Lakers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Porter, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 27.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Murray, Porter, Braun, Jackson, and Gordon played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Porter, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Los Angeles Lakers
Russell, Prince, Davis, Dinwiddie, and James played 2.9 minutes together.
Prince, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and Davis played 2.4 minutes together.
Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, Davis, and James played 2.2 minutes together.
Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 1.5 minutes together.
Russell, Hachimura, Davis, Dinwiddie, and James played 1.5 minutes together.
Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Dinwiddie, and James played 1.0 minutes together.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Porter, Jackson, Gordon, and Jokic played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Porter, Watson, Jackson, and Gordon played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Porter, Braun, Jackson, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Murray, Holiday, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Porter, Watson, Holiday, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

