SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 29 April 2024

LAL106–108DEN
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DEN winsLAL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when LAL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · LAL

LeBron James
Anthony Davis
Rui Hachimura
Austin Reaves
Taurean Prince

James · Davis · Hachimura · Reaves · Prince

Closing lineup · DEN

Aaron Gordon
Michael Porter Jr.
Nikola Jokic
Jamal Murray
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Gordon · Porter · Jokic · Murray · Caldwell-Pope

Q1Q2Q3Q4
LAL
LeBron James

LeBron James

44′ · +3

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis

40′ · -4

D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

39′ · +7

Rui Hachimura

Rui Hachimura

34′ · -11

Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves

34′ · +1

Taurean Prince

Taurean Prince

19′ · -5

Gabe Vincent

Gabe Vincent

9′ · -5

Spencer Dinwiddie

Spencer Dinwiddie

14′ · -5

Jaxson Hayes

Jaxson Hayes

7′ · +6

DEN
Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon

46′ · +3

Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr.

46′ · +12

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

41′ · +7

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray

41′ · +3

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

33′ · -1

Peyton Watson

Peyton Watson

5′ · -5

Justin Holiday

Justin Holiday

4′ · -10

Reggie Jackson

Reggie Jackson

18′ · -2

Christian Braun

Christian Braun

6′ · +3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and DEN.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Russell, Hachimura, Reaves, Davis, and James played 25.2 minutes together.

  • Russell, Prince, Hayes, Dinwiddie, and James played 6.8 minutes together.

  • Prince, Vincent, Reaves, Davis, and James played 3.6 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Los Angeles Lakers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Porter, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 27.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 11 points.

  • Murray, Porter, Braun, Jackson, and Gordon played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Porter, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Russell, Prince, Davis, Dinwiddie, and James played 2.9 minutes together.

  • Prince, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and Davis played 2.4 minutes together.

  • Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, Davis, and James played 2.2 minutes together.

  • Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Davis, and Dinwiddie played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Russell, Hachimura, Davis, Dinwiddie, and James played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Russell, Prince, Hachimura, Dinwiddie, and James played 1.0 minutes together.

Denver Nuggets

  • Murray, Porter, Jackson, Gordon, and Jokic played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Murray, Porter, Watson, Jackson, and Gordon played 3.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Porter, Braun, Jackson, Gordon, and Jokic played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Murray, Holiday, Caldwell-Pope, Gordon, and Jokic played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Murray, Porter, Watson, Holiday, and Jokic played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.861
101.7% of capacity
Ball Arena · Denver
Series
Game 5
First round
DEN 4-1
Scoring
214
combined points
2.8 above the season average (211.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

30 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:38.1
Austin Reaves → Aaron Gordon
Reaves (LAL) clamps and holds Gordon's (DEN) arm, which affects his ability to secure the rebound with both hands.