Win probability changed during the game. · 26 April 2024
It was more exciting than 84% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 37 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when MIL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIL
Lillard · Portis · Middleton · Lopez · Connaughton
Closing lineup · IND
Haliburton · Nesmith · Siakam · Nembhard · McConnell
Damian Lillard
45′ · -1
Bobby Portis
44′ · -1
Patrick Beverley
42′ · -8
Khris Middleton
41′ · +2
Brook Lopez
39′ · -10
Malik Beasley
7′ · -11
Pat Connaughton
13′ · -5
AJ Green
14′ · +10
Andre Jackson Jr.
17′ · +7
Jae Crowder
2′ · 0
Tyrese Haliburton
46′ · +16
Aaron Nesmith
43′ · -7
Myles Turner
42′ · +10
Pascal Siakam
42′ · +1
Andrew Nembhard
40′ · +4
Obi Toppin
17′ · -3
Ben Sheppard
17′ · +3
T.J. McConnell
16′ · -3
Jalen Smith
3′ · -6
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIL and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Milwaukee Bucks
Portis, Lopez, Beverley, Lillard, and Middleton played 24.3 minutes together.
Portis, Connaughton, Green, Jackson, and Middleton played 3.2 minutes together.
Portis, Jackson, Beverley, Lillard, and Middleton played 2.8 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Milwaukee Bucks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Indiana Pacers
Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 28.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Sheppard played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Turner, Toppin, Haliburton, Sheppard, and McConnell played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Milwaukee Bucks
Portis, Connaughton, Green, Beverley, and Lillard played 2.5 minutes together.
Jackson, Lopez, Beverley, Lillard, and Middleton played 2.5 minutes together.
Jackson, Lopez, Beverley, Lillard, and Crowder played 2.3 minutes together.
Portis, Jackson, Lopez, Lillard, and Middleton played 1.8 minutes together.
Connaughton, Green, Jackson, Lopez, and Lillard played 1.8 minutes together.
Portis, Beasley, Lopez, Lillard, and Middleton played 1.7 minutes together.
Portis, Green, Lopez, Beverley, and Lillard played 1.6 minutes together.
Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, Green, and Beverley played 1.5 minutes together.
Connaughton, Beasley, Lopez, Beverley, and Middleton played 1.5 minutes together.
Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, Beverley, and Lillard played 1.3 minutes together.
Connaughton, Green, Jackson, Lopez, and Middleton played 1.0 minutes together.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Nesmith, Smith, Sheppard, and McConnell played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Nembhard, Toppin, Nesmith, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Toppin, Nesmith, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and McConnell played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Haliburton, Nesmith, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Sheppard played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Turner, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and McConnell played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

