SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 26 April 2024

MIL118–121IND
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 84% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 37 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ IND winsMIL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when MIL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIL

Damian Lillard
Bobby Portis
Khris Middleton
Brook Lopez
Pat Connaughton

Lillard · Portis · Middleton · Lopez · Connaughton

Closing lineup · IND

Tyrese Haliburton
Aaron Nesmith
Pascal Siakam
Andrew Nembhard
T.J. McConnell

Haliburton · Nesmith · Siakam · Nembhard · McConnell

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
MIL
Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard

45′ · -1

Bobby Portis

Bobby Portis

44′ · -1

Patrick Beverley

Patrick Beverley

42′ · -8

Khris Middleton

Khris Middleton

41′ · +2

Brook Lopez

Brook Lopez

39′ · -10

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

7′ · -11

Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton

13′ · -5

AJ Green

AJ Green

14′ · +10

Andre Jackson Jr.

Andre Jackson Jr.

17′ · +7

Jae Crowder

Jae Crowder

2′ · 0

IND
Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton

46′ · +16

Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith

43′ · -7

Myles Turner

Myles Turner

42′ · +10

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam

42′ · +1

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard

40′ · +4

Obi Toppin

Obi Toppin

17′ · -3

Ben Sheppard

Ben Sheppard

17′ · +3

T.J. McConnell

T.J. McConnell

16′ · -3

Jalen Smith

Jalen Smith

3′ · -6

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIL and IND.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Portis, Lopez, Beverley, Lillard, and Middleton played 24.3 minutes together.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Green, Jackson, and Middleton played 3.2 minutes together.

  • Portis, Jackson, Beverley, Lillard, and Middleton played 2.8 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Milwaukee Bucks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 28.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Sheppard played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Turner, Toppin, Haliburton, Sheppard, and McConnell played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Portis, Connaughton, Green, Beverley, and Lillard played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Jackson, Lopez, Beverley, Lillard, and Middleton played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Jackson, Lopez, Beverley, Lillard, and Crowder played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Portis, Jackson, Lopez, Lillard, and Middleton played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Connaughton, Green, Jackson, Lopez, and Lillard played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Portis, Beasley, Lopez, Lillard, and Middleton played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Portis, Green, Lopez, Beverley, and Lillard played 1.6 minutes together.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, Green, and Beverley played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Connaughton, Beasley, Lopez, Beverley, and Middleton played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Portis, Connaughton, Beasley, Beverley, and Lillard played 1.3 minutes together.

  • Connaughton, Green, Jackson, Lopez, and Middleton played 1.0 minutes together.

Indiana Pacers

  • Siakam, Nesmith, Smith, Sheppard, and McConnell played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Toppin, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Siakam, Nembhard, Toppin, Nesmith, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Nesmith, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and McConnell played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Siakam, Haliburton, Nesmith, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Sheppard played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Turner, Toppin, Haliburton, Nesmith, and McConnell played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.274
96.4% of capacity
Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
Series
Game 3
First round
IND 4-2
Scoring
239
combined points
27.8 above the season average (211.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

44 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:47.4
Pascal Siakam → Bucks
Siakam (IND) fails to fully clear the lane and is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.
Foul: Loose Ball · 01:47.4
Pascal Siakam → Damian Lillard
Siakam (IND) extends his right arm out and initiates illegal contact with Lillard's (MIL) face during the rebound.