Win probability changed during the game. · 18 May 2024
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when OKC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Williams · Holmgren · Joe · Williams
Closing lineup · DAL
Doncic · Irving · Jones · Washington · Lively
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
43′ · 0
Jalen Williams
37′ · -7
Chet Holmgren
35′ · +8
Luguentz Dort
32′ · -6
Isaiah Joe
29′ · -6
Jaylin Williams
18′ · -14
Josh Giddey
10′ · +2
Cason Wallace
24′ · +4
Aaron Wiggins
8′ · +11
Kenrich Williams
4′ · +3
Luka Doncic
45′ · +7
Kyrie Irving
42′ · +2
Derrick Jones Jr.
40′ · +18
P.J. Washington
30′ · +8
Daniel Gafford
19′ · -25
Josh Green
19′ · -9
Dereck Lively II
30′ · +26
Jaden Hardy
11′ · -15
Tim Hardaway Jr.
6′ · -7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Holmgren, and Williams played 12.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 7.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Jones, Washington, Doncic, Lively, and Irving played 17.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 26 points.
Jones, Washington, Doncic, Gafford, and Irving played 8.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Jones, Doncic, Gafford, Green, and Irving played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, Williams, and Williams played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Wiggins, and Holmgren played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, and Wallace played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Joe, and Holmgren played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Holmgren, and Wallace played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Dort, Joe, Giddey, Williams, and Williams played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Dort, Wiggins, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Holmgren, and Wallace played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Williams, and Wallace played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Dallas Mavericks
Jones, Doncic, Green, Lively, and Irving played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Doncic, Gafford, Green, Hardy, and Irving played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Jones, Washington, Doncic, Gafford, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Green, Hardy, Lively, Irving, and Hardaway played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Doncic, Green, Hardy, Lively, and Hardaway played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jones, Doncic, Hardy, Lively, and Irving played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Doncic, Green, Hardy, and Lively played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jones, Green, Hardy, Lively, and Irving played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

