SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 18 May 2024

OKC116–117DAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DAL winsOKC wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when OKC does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jalen Williams
Chet Holmgren
Isaiah Joe
Jaylin Williams

Gilgeous-Alexander · Williams · Holmgren · Joe · Williams

Closing lineup · DAL

Luka Doncic
Kyrie Irving
Derrick Jones Jr.
P.J. Washington
Dereck Lively II

Doncic · Irving · Jones · Washington · Lively

Q1Q2Q3Q4
OKC
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

43′ · 0

Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

37′ · -7

Chet Holmgren

Chet Holmgren

35′ · +8

Luguentz Dort

Luguentz Dort

32′ · -6

Isaiah Joe

Isaiah Joe

29′ · -6

Jaylin Williams

Jaylin Williams

18′ · -14

Josh Giddey

Josh Giddey

10′ · +2

Cason Wallace

Cason Wallace

24′ · +4

Aaron Wiggins

Aaron Wiggins

8′ · +11

Kenrich Williams

Kenrich Williams

4′ · +3

DAL
Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic

45′ · +7

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving

42′ · +2

Derrick Jones Jr.

Derrick Jones Jr.

40′ · +18

P.J. Washington

P.J. Washington

30′ · +8

Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford

19′ · -25

Josh Green

Josh Green

19′ · -9

Dereck Lively II

Dereck Lively II

30′ · +26

Jaden Hardy

Jaden Hardy

11′ · -15

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

6′ · -7

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and DAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Holmgren, and Williams played 12.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 7.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Jones, Washington, Doncic, Lively, and Irving played 17.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 26 points.

  • Jones, Washington, Doncic, Gafford, and Irving played 8.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.

  • Jones, Doncic, Gafford, Green, and Irving played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, Williams, and Williams played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Wiggins, and Holmgren played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, and Wallace played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Joe, and Holmgren played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Dort, Holmgren, and Wallace played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Dort, Joe, Giddey, Williams, and Williams played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Dort, Wiggins, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Holmgren, and Wallace played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Giddey, Williams, and Wallace played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Giddey, Wiggins, Williams, Williams, and Wallace played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Jones, Doncic, Green, Lively, and Irving played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Doncic, Gafford, Green, Hardy, and Irving played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Jones, Washington, Doncic, Gafford, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Green, Hardy, Lively, Irving, and Hardaway played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Doncic, Green, Hardy, Lively, and Hardaway played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Jones, Doncic, Hardy, Lively, and Irving played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Jones, Doncic, Green, Hardy, and Lively played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Jones, Green, Hardy, Lively, and Irving played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
20.555
107.1% of capacity
American Airlines Center · Dallas
Series
Game 6
Conference semifinals
DAL 4-2
Scoring
233
combined points
21.8 above the season average (211.2)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Stoppage: Out-of-Bounds · 01:45.2
P.J. Washington → Jalen Williams
Williams' (OKC) shot attempt makes contact with the bottom of the backboard and goes out of bounds. Washington (DAL) never makes contact with the ball and possession should be given to Dallas.
Foul: Shooting · 01:46.3
P.J. Washington → Jalen Williams
Washington (DAL) holds down Williams' (OKC) shoulder as he jumps to contest and the illegal contact affects Williams' driving shot attempt.