Win probability changed during the game. · 12 November 2024
It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 34 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when MIA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIA
Adebayo · Herro · Rozier · Highsmith · Robinson
Closing lineup · DET
Harris · Cunningham · Duren · Beasley · Fontecchio
Bam Adebayo
44′ · +1
Tyler Herro
42′ · +3
Terry Rozier
40′ · 0
Haywood Highsmith
36′ · +2
Kevin Love
10′ · -6
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
25′ · -13
Josh Richardson
8′ · -1
Nikola Jovic
3′ · -1
Duncan Robinson
36′ · +14
Kel'el Ware
9′ · -3
Pelle Larsson
13′ · -7
Jaden Ivey
41′ · -2
Tobias Harris
40′ · +4
Cade Cunningham
38′ · -2
Jalen Duren
30′ · 0
Tim Hardaway Jr.
19′ · +6
Malik Beasley
35′ · -9
Isaiah Stewart
23′ · +2
Simone Fontecchio
23′ · +12
Ronald Holland II
16′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and DET.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Miami Heat
Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Love played 9.7 minutes together.
Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, and Herro played 9.3 minutes together.
Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Herro, and Jaquez played 5.0 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Miami Heat lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Detroit Pistons
Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 9.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Beasley, Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, and Harris played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Miami Heat
Rozier, Richardson, Robinson, Jaquez, and Ware played 4.7 minutes together.
Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, Herro, and Larsson played 4.5 minutes together.
Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, and Larsson played 4.0 minutes together.
Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, Herro, and Jaquez played 3.5 minutes together.
Rozier, Highsmith, Herro, Jaquez, and Ware played 2.6 minutes together.
Richardson, Adebayo, Herro, Jovic, and Jaquez played 2.5 minutes together.
Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Jaquez, and Larsson played 2.1 minutes together.
Robinson, Herro, Jaquez, Larsson, and Ware played 2.0 minutes together.
Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Jaquez played 1.6 minutes together.
Detroit Pistons
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Harris played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Fontecchio, and Holland played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, and Harris played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Harris played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Ivey, Duren, Fontecchio, Holland, and Harris played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Beasley, Ivey, Duren, Holland, and Hardaway played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Beasley, Ivey, Duren, Fontecchio, and Holland played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Fontecchio, and Harris played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

