SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 12 November 2024

MIA121–123DET
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 95% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 34 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DET winsMIA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when MIA does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIA

Bam Adebayo
Tyler Herro
Terry Rozier
Haywood Highsmith
Duncan Robinson

Adebayo · Herro · Rozier · Highsmith · Robinson

Closing lineup · DET

Tobias Harris
Cade Cunningham
Jalen Duren
Malik Beasley
Simone Fontecchio

Harris · Cunningham · Duren · Beasley · Fontecchio

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
MIA
Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo

44′ · +1

Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro

42′ · +3

Terry Rozier

Terry Rozier

40′ · 0

Haywood Highsmith

Haywood Highsmith

36′ · +2

Kevin Love

Kevin Love

10′ · -6

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

25′ · -13

Josh Richardson

Josh Richardson

8′ · -1

Nikola Jovic

Nikola Jovic

3′ · -1

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

36′ · +14

Kel'el Ware

Kel'el Ware

9′ · -3

Pelle Larsson

Pelle Larsson

13′ · -7

DET
Jaden Ivey

Jaden Ivey

41′ · -2

Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris

40′ · +4

Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham

38′ · -2

Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren

30′ · 0

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

19′ · +6

Malik Beasley

Malik Beasley

35′ · -9

Isaiah Stewart

Isaiah Stewart

23′ · +2

Simone Fontecchio

Simone Fontecchio

23′ · +12

Ronald Holland II

Ronald Holland II

16′ · -1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and DET.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Miami Heat

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Love played 9.7 minutes together.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, and Herro played 9.3 minutes together.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Herro, and Jaquez played 5.0 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Miami Heat lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Detroit Pistons

  • Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, Harris, and Hardaway played 9.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Ivey, Duren, and Harris played 6.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, Harris, and Hardaway played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Miami Heat

  • Rozier, Richardson, Robinson, Jaquez, and Ware played 4.7 minutes together.

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, Herro, and Larsson played 4.5 minutes together.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, and Larsson played 4.0 minutes together.

  • Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, Herro, and Jaquez played 3.5 minutes together.

  • Rozier, Highsmith, Herro, Jaquez, and Ware played 2.6 minutes together.

  • Richardson, Adebayo, Herro, Jovic, and Jaquez played 2.5 minutes together.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Jaquez, and Larsson played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Robinson, Herro, Jaquez, Larsson, and Ware played 2.0 minutes together.

  • Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Jaquez played 1.6 minutes together.

Detroit Pistons

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Harris played 4.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Fontecchio, and Holland played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Ivey, and Harris played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Harris played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Ivey, Fontecchio, and Holland played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Ivey, Duren, Fontecchio, Holland, and Harris played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Beasley, Ivey, Duren, Holland, and Hardaway played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Beasley, Ivey, Duren, Fontecchio, and Holland played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Fontecchio, and Harris played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 10 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.806
87.6% of capacity
Little Caesars Arena · Detroit
Scoring
244
combined points
16.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

23 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Loose Ball · 00:17.0
Bam Adebayo → Cade Cunningham
Adebayo (MIA) holds down Cunningham's (DET) arm, affecting his ability to pursue the jump ball.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 00:43.0
Bam Adebayo → Pistons
Adebayo (MIA) is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.