Win probability changed during the game. · 8 November 2024
It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 26 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when PHX does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · PHX
Durant · Beal · Booker · O'Neale · Allen
Closing lineup · DAL
Doncic · Irving · Thompson · Dinwiddie · Powell
Kevin Durant
37′ · +11
Bradley Beal
36′ · -14
Devin Booker
35′ · -17
Jusuf Nurkic
34′ · -3
Tyus Jones
31′ · +5
Royce O'Neale
29′ · +14
Grayson Allen
19′ · +6
Mason Plumlee
14′ · +4
Josh Okogie
5′ · -1
Luka Doncic
42′ · -4
Kyrie Irving
41′ · +8
Klay Thompson
34′ · +5
Naji Marshall
29′ · -7
Daniel Gafford
23′ · 0
Spencer Dinwiddie
28′ · -2
Dwight Powell
25′ · -1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
3′ · +1
Quentin Grimes
9′ · -1
Jaden Hardy
3′ · -1
Kessler Edwards
2′ · -4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and DAL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Phoenix Suns
Jones, Booker, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 10.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Jones, O'Neale, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jones, Booker, O'Neale, Durant, and Nurkic played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Dallas Mavericks
Doncic, Gafford, Marshall, Irving, and Thompson played 11.3 minutes together.
Doncic, Marshall, Irving, Thompson, and Powell played 6.9 minutes together.
Doncic, Gafford, Irving, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 6.1 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Dallas Mavericks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Phoenix Suns
Jones, O'Neale, Allen, Durant, and Plumlee played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Booker, O'Neale, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Booker, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Plumlee played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Allen, Okogie, Beal, and Plumlee played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, Allen, Okogie, Beal, and Nurkic played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Beal, and Plumlee played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Jones, Booker, O'Neale, Beal, and Nurkic played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
O'Neale, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Plumlee played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jones, Booker, O'Neale, Allen, and Nurkic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Dallas Mavericks
Doncic, Marshall, Irving, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 3.7 minutes together.
Doncic, Grimes, Irving, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 3.3 minutes together.
Prosper, Irving, Thompson, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 3.3 minutes together.
Doncic, Gafford, Grimes, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 2.7 minutes together.
Marshall, Hardy, Irving, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 2.1 minutes together.
Doncic, Gafford, Grimes, Marshall, and Dinwiddie played 1.7 minutes together.
Doncic, Hardy, Irving, Thompson, and Powell played 1.4 minutes together.
Doncic, Marshall, Edwards, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.2 minutes together.
Doncic, Grimes, Marshall, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.0 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

