SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 8 November 2024

PHX114–113DAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 96% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 26 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ DAL winsPHX wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DAL leads and falls when PHX does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · PHX

Kevin Durant
Bradley Beal
Devin Booker
Royce O'Neale
Grayson Allen

Durant · Beal · Booker · O'Neale · Allen

Closing lineup · DAL

Luka Doncic
Kyrie Irving
Klay Thompson
Spencer Dinwiddie
Dwight Powell

Doncic · Irving · Thompson · Dinwiddie · Powell

Q1Q2Q3Q4
PHX
Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant

37′ · +11

Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal

36′ · -14

Devin Booker

Devin Booker

35′ · -17

Jusuf Nurkic

Jusuf Nurkic

34′ · -3

Tyus Jones

Tyus Jones

31′ · +5

Royce O'Neale

Royce O'Neale

29′ · +14

Grayson Allen

Grayson Allen

19′ · +6

Mason Plumlee

Mason Plumlee

14′ · +4

Josh Okogie

Josh Okogie

5′ · -1

DAL
Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic

42′ · -4

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving

41′ · +8

Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

34′ · +5

Naji Marshall

Naji Marshall

29′ · -7

Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford

23′ · 0

Spencer Dinwiddie

Spencer Dinwiddie

28′ · -2

Dwight Powell

Dwight Powell

25′ · -1

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

3′ · +1

Quentin Grimes

Quentin Grimes

9′ · -1

Jaden Hardy

Jaden Hardy

3′ · -1

Kessler Edwards

Kessler Edwards

2′ · -4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. PHX and DAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Phoenix Suns

  • Jones, Booker, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 10.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.

  • Jones, O'Neale, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 7.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Jones, Booker, O'Neale, Durant, and Nurkic played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Doncic, Gafford, Marshall, Irving, and Thompson played 11.3 minutes together.

  • Doncic, Marshall, Irving, Thompson, and Powell played 6.9 minutes together.

  • Doncic, Gafford, Irving, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 6.1 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Dallas Mavericks lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Phoenix Suns

  • Jones, O'Neale, Allen, Durant, and Plumlee played 4.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 13 points.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Durant, Beal, and Nurkic played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Booker, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Plumlee played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, Allen, Okogie, Beal, and Plumlee played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Booker, Allen, Okogie, Beal, and Nurkic played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Beal, and Plumlee played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Jones, Booker, O'Neale, Beal, and Nurkic played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • O'Neale, Allen, Durant, Beal, and Plumlee played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Jones, Booker, O'Neale, Allen, and Nurkic played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Dallas Mavericks

  • Doncic, Marshall, Irving, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 3.7 minutes together.

  • Doncic, Grimes, Irving, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 3.3 minutes together.

  • Prosper, Irving, Thompson, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 3.3 minutes together.

  • Doncic, Gafford, Grimes, Thompson, and Dinwiddie played 2.7 minutes together.

  • Marshall, Hardy, Irving, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Doncic, Gafford, Grimes, Marshall, and Dinwiddie played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Doncic, Hardy, Irving, Thompson, and Powell played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Doncic, Marshall, Edwards, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.2 minutes together.

  • Doncic, Grimes, Marshall, Dinwiddie, and Powell played 1.0 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
20.277
105.6% of capacity
American Airlines Center · Dallas
Scoring
227
combined points
0.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

13 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors