SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 18 November 2024

HOU100–101MIL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIL winsHOU wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when HOU does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · HOU

Jalen Green
Alperen Sengun
Fred VanVleet
Jabari Smith Jr.
Dillon Brooks

Green · Sengun · VanVleet · Smith · Brooks

Closing lineup · MIL

Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean Prince
Andre Jackson Jr.
Gary Trent Jr.
AJ Green

Antetokounmpo · Prince · Jackson · Trent · Green

Q1Q2Q3Q4
HOU
Jalen Green

Jalen Green

39′ · +8

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun

39′ · +11

Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet

35′ · +3

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr.

25′ · -2

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks

21′ · -3

Tari Eason

Tari Eason

31′ · -6

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson

29′ · -5

Steven Adams

Steven Adams

5′ · -12

Jeff Green

Jeff Green

2′ · -3

Reed Sheppard

Reed Sheppard

5′ · -7

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

9′ · +11

MIL
Brook Lopez

Brook Lopez

40′ · +14

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

36′ · -2

Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard

36′ · -4

Taurean Prince

Taurean Prince

27′ · -12

Andre Jackson Jr.

Andre Jackson Jr.

5′ · -8

Gary Trent Jr.

Gary Trent Jr.

24′ · +15

AJ Green

AJ Green

29′ · +15

Delon Wright

Delon Wright

23′ · -3

Bobby Portis Jr.

Bobby Portis Jr.

21′ · -10

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and MIL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 9.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 12 points.

  • VanVleet, Green, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 6.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Holiday, Green, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Prince, Green, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 7.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Wright, Portis, Prince, Lopez, and Lillard played 5.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Portis, Trent, Green, Lopez, and Lillard played 5.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 15 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Thompson played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • VanVleet, Sengun, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • VanVleet, Holiday, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • VanVleet, Green, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Green, Eason, Thompson, Green, and Adams played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Green, Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, and Adams played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Brooks, Green, Sengun, Thompson, and Sheppard played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • VanVleet, Green, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Eason, and Thompson played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Wright, Portis, Trent, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 4.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.

  • Prince, Jackson, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Wright, Trent, Green, Lopez, and Antetokounmpo played 3.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Trent, Green, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Wright, Prince, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Wright, Prince, Trent, Lopez, and Antetokounmpo played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Portis, Trent, Green, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Wright, Portis, Green, Lopez, and Lillard played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Prince, Trent, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Wright, Portis, Prince, Trent, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Wright, Green, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.341
100% of capacity
Fiserv Forum · Milwaukee
Scoring
201
combined points
26.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: Stepped out of Bounds · 00:20.4
Giannis Antetokounmpo → Rockets
Antetokounmpo's (MIL) left foot is out of bounds when he receives the pass from Lopez (MIL).