Win probability changed during the game. · 18 November 2024
It was more exciting than 85% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIL leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Green · Sengun · VanVleet · Smith · Brooks
Closing lineup · MIL
Antetokounmpo · Prince · Jackson · Trent · Green
Jalen Green
39′ · +8
Alperen Sengun
39′ · +11
Fred VanVleet
35′ · +3
Jabari Smith Jr.
25′ · -2
Dillon Brooks
21′ · -3
Tari Eason
31′ · -6
Amen Thompson
29′ · -5
Steven Adams
5′ · -12
Jeff Green
2′ · -3
Reed Sheppard
5′ · -7
Aaron Holiday
9′ · +11
Brook Lopez
40′ · +14
Giannis Antetokounmpo
36′ · -2
Damian Lillard
36′ · -4
Taurean Prince
27′ · -12
Andre Jackson Jr.
5′ · -8
Gary Trent Jr.
24′ · +15
AJ Green
29′ · +15
Delon Wright
23′ · -3
Bobby Portis Jr.
21′ · -10
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and MIL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 9.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 12 points.
VanVleet, Green, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 6.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Holiday, Green, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Milwaukee Bucks
Prince, Green, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 7.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Wright, Portis, Prince, Lopez, and Lillard played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Portis, Trent, Green, Lopez, and Lillard played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 15 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Thompson played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
VanVleet, Sengun, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
VanVleet, Holiday, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
VanVleet, Green, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Green, Eason, Thompson, Green, and Adams played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Smith, and Eason played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Green, Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, and Adams played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brooks, Green, Sengun, Thompson, and Sheppard played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
VanVleet, Green, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Eason, and Thompson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Milwaukee Bucks
Wright, Portis, Trent, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Prince, Jackson, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Wright, Trent, Green, Lopez, and Antetokounmpo played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Trent, Green, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Wright, Prince, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Wright, Prince, Trent, Lopez, and Antetokounmpo played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Portis, Trent, Green, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Wright, Portis, Green, Lopez, and Lillard played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Prince, Trent, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Wright, Portis, Prince, Trent, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Wright, Green, Lopez, Lillard, and Antetokounmpo played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

