SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 21 November 2024

ORL119–118LAL
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 97% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 21 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ LAL winsORL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when LAL leads and falls when ORL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · ORL

Jalen Suggs
Franz Wagner
Goga Bitadze
Anthony Black
Jonathan Isaac

Suggs · Wagner · Bitadze · Black · Isaac

Closing lineup · LAL

Dalton Knecht
Anthony Davis
LeBron James
Austin Reaves
D'Angelo Russell

Knecht · Davis · James · Reaves · Russell

Q1Q2Q3Q4
ORL
Jalen Suggs

Jalen Suggs

40′ · +6

Franz Wagner

Franz Wagner

39′ · +5

Tristan da Silva

Tristan da Silva

32′ · +10

Goga Bitadze

Goga Bitadze

30′ · +13

Gary Harris

Gary Harris

26′ · +1

Moritz Wagner

Moritz Wagner

18′ · -12

Anthony Black

Anthony Black

22′ · -6

Jonathan Isaac

Jonathan Isaac

18′ · -7

Jett Howard

Jett Howard

11′ · -7

Cole Anthony

Cole Anthony

4′ · +2

LAL
Dalton Knecht

Dalton Knecht

39′ · +5

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis

38′ · 0

LeBron James

LeBron James

37′ · -8

Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves

33′ · -8

Cam Reddish

Cam Reddish

21′ · +1

Max Christie

Max Christie

25′ · -2

D'Angelo Russell

D'Angelo Russell

23′ · +2

Gabe Vincent

Gabe Vincent

14′ · +6

Christian Koloko

Christian Koloko

10′ · -1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and LAL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Orlando Magic

  • Bitadze, Wagner, Suggs, da Silva, and Harris played 19.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 10 points.

  • Isaac, Wagner, Suggs, Black, and Howard played 7.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Isaac, Bitadze, Wagner, da Silva, and Harris played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Reddish, Reaves, Knecht, Davis, and James played 11.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Reddish, Reaves, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Reaves, Christie, Knecht, Davis, and James played 4.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Orlando Magic

  • Bitadze, Wagner, Suggs, Black, and da Silva played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Wagner, Anthony, Wagner, Suggs, and Black played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Isaac, Wagner, Wagner, Black, and Howard played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Isaac, Wagner, Wagner, Black, and da Silva played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Isaac, Wagner, Anthony, Suggs, and Black played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Bitadze, Wagner, Suggs, Black, and Harris played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Wagner, Wagner, Suggs, da Silva, and Harris played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Russell, Vincent, Christie, Knecht, and Davis played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Russell, Vincent, Koloko, Knecht, and James played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Reaves, Knecht, Davis, and James played 4.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Vincent, Christie, Koloko, and James played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Russell, Vincent, Knecht, Davis, and James played 2.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Russell, Reaves, Christie, Koloko, and James played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Reddish, Reaves, Christie, Davis, and James played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Russell, Reaves, Christie, Davis, and James played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.997
100% of capacity
Crypto.com Arena · Los Angeles
Scoring
237
combined points
9.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

12 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 01:41.3
Goga Bitadze → Anthony Davis
Bitadze (ORL) lowers his hand and initiates contact with Davis's (LAL) elbow, affecting his shot attempt.