Miami Heat – Orlando Magic · NBA

Win probability changed during the game. · 26 December 2024

MIA89–88ORL

Is it worth watching?

The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ ORL winsMIA wins ↓

The last point of this curve falls on ORL's side, but MIA won 89-88. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when MIA does.

This is how the game was decided.

Tyler Herro decided it, the Miami Heat player with the most points (20, with 3 rebounds and 2 assists; -10 with him on the floor); the winner's best plus-minus was Alec Burks's (+17). The criterion: the winner's points in the box score; plus-minus says who was on the floor when the game opened up.

The game-winner in Orlando Magic 88-89 Miami Heat (December 26, 2024) was hit by Tyler Herro: a jump shot with 0.1 s left in the fourth quarter, putting the Miami Heat up 89-88. They never trailed again.

The biggest run of Orlando Magic 88-89 Miami Heat (December 26, 2024) was a 14-0 run by the Orlando Magic in the first quarter (from 11:12 to 8:11), from 0-0 to 14-0. The Miami Heat' best was a 11-0 run in the fourth quarter (from 9:22 to 7:09), from 69-76 to 80-76.

▸See where these figures come from

Play: Tyler Herro makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists).

I count as the game-winner the basket that puts the winning team ahead for good. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

A run here is consecutive points by one team without the opponent scoring. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

Source: the game's official box score and play-by-play.

Tyler Herro decided this game: his points put his team ahead with 0.1 seconds left in the fourth quarter, and the opponent never led again.

It is one of the 4 games he has decided this way in the NBA since the 2002-03 season.

His profile shows the games Herro decided

▸See where these figures come from

A game is decided by the last basket that puts a team ahead in the final ten seconds of the fourth quarter or of an overtime, if that team wins.

26 December 2024 · The source is the ESPN play-by-play, play espn:401704977:611; the date is the one on the NBA box score.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIA

Adebayo · Herro · Highsmith · Burks · Ware

Closing lineup · ORL

da Silva · Queen · Bitadze · Caldwell-Pope · Suggs

Q1Q2Q3Q4

MIA

Bam Adebayo

35′ · -3

Tyler Herro

32′ · -10

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

31′ · +2

Haywood Highsmith

27′ · -10

Duncan Robinson

18′ · -12

Terry Rozier

29′ · +12

Nikola Jovic

24′ · +5

Alec Burks

32′ · +17

Kel'el Ware

13′ · +4

ORL

Tristan da Silva

39′ · +12

Trevelin Queen

37′ · +9

Goga Bitadze

33′ · +6

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

32′ · +10

Jalen Suggs

32′ · +8

Cole Anthony

12′ · -3

Wendell Carter Jr.

15′ · -7

Anthony Black

14′ · -9

Jonathan Isaac

13′ · -12

Cory Joseph

8′ · -11

Jett Howard

5′ · -8

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIA and ORL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Miami Heat

Adebayo, Robinson, Highsmith, Herro, and Jaquez played 13.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Herro, Jovic, Jaquez, Ware, and Burks played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Jaquez, and Burks played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

Orlando Magic

Bitadze, Queen, Suggs, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 24.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Isaac, Carter, Anthony, Black, and Caldwell-Pope played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bitadze, Anthony, Queen, Suggs, and da Silva played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Miami Heat

Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Burks played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Rozier, Herro, Jovic, Ware, and Burks played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Rozier, Adebayo, Jovic, Jaquez, and Burks played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Rozier, Adebayo, Robinson, Jovic, and Burks played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Rozier, Adebayo, Highsmith, Herro, and Jovic played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Rozier, Jovic, Jaquez, Ware, and Burks played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Orlando Magic

Isaac, Carter, Black, Howard, and Joseph played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Isaac, Carter, Queen, Black, and da Silva played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Bitadze, Queen, da Silva, Joseph, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Carter, Black, Howard, da Silva, and Joseph played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Isaac, Carter, Anthony, Black, and da Silva played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Bitadze, Queen, Suggs, Joseph, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Isaac, Bitadze, Queen, Suggs, and da Silva played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Tristan da Silva covered 4.78 km, more than anyone in the game.

Jalen Suggs touched the ball 88 times, a game high.
Bam Adebayo defended 7 shots at the rim, a game high, and opponents made 3.
Goga Bitadze had 22 rebound chances, a game high.

▸See what was measured for each player

Miami Heat

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
Tyler Herro	4.10	7.2	72	45
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	3.93	7.3	43	29
Bam Adebayo	3.75	5.9	62	46
Alec Burks	3.70	6.4	41	30
Terry Rozier	3.57	6.8	57	37
Haywood Highsmith	3.44	7.1	24	16
Nikola Jović	2.85	6.7	41	30
Duncan Robinson	2.20	6.9	20	17
Kel'el Ware	1.63	6.9	9	5

Orlando Magic

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
Tristan da Silva	4.78	6.9	56	39
Trevelin Queen	4.52	6.8	43	33
Jalen Suggs	3.88	6.7	88	51
Goga Bitadze	3.65	6.2	61	51
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	3.60	6.2	51

The figures come from the NBA's optical tracking (NBA.com) for this game; speed is each player's average while on the floor.

Who stood out on defense during the season

These figures cover the whole 2024-25 regular season, not this game.

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo deflected 3.1 passes per game over his 78 games.
He ranks 19 of 388 in the league.
Duncan Robinson drew 0.11 charges per game over his 72 games.
He ranks 32 of 388 in the league.
Haywood Highsmith deflected 2.3 passes per game over his 74 games.
He ranks 63 of 388 in the league.

Orlando Magic

Jalen Suggs drew 0.17 charges per game over his 35 games.
He ranks 12 of 388 in the league.
Goga Bitadze contested 6.4 shots per game over his 70 games.
He ranks 41 of 388 in the league.
Wendell Carter Jr. contested 6.0 shots per game over his 68 games.
He ranks 50 of 388 in the league.

Hustle figures come from the hustle stats the NBA publishes (NBA.com) and rim defense comes from its tracking; both cover the regular season. For each player in this game we show the figure that ranks him highest in the league, and for each team, the three best ranked. Ranks count players with at least 30 games and, at the rim, at least 4 defended shots per game.

The Orlando Magic have won 68 of their 152 games against the Miami Heat.

68-84record of the Orlando Magic · NBA 1989-90 – 2025-26, regular season and playoffs

5-0in 2025-26

See the full head-to-head in the Analyst

See where it comes from

Official NBA box scores, regular season and playoffs, 1989-90 – 2025-26. It counts every game between the two teams that the house holds, this one included.

SportiveWorld knows much more about this game

Game context

Attendance

18.846

100% of capacity

Kia Center · Orlando

Scoring

177

combined points

50.7 below the season average (227.7)

⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

10 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors