SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 26 December 2024

CHA110–113WAS
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 23 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ WAS winsCHA wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when CHA does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · CHA

LaMelo Ball
Brandon Miller
Miles Bridges
Josh Green
Mark Williams

Ball · Miller · Bridges · Green · Williams

Closing lineup · WAS

Bilal Coulibaly
Bub Carrington
Alex Sarr
Justin Champagnie
Malcolm Brogdon

Coulibaly · Carrington · Sarr · Champagnie · Brogdon

Q1Q2Q3Q4
CHA
LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball

38′ · -10

Brandon Miller

Brandon Miller

36′ · +6

Miles Bridges

Miles Bridges

34′ · +1

Josh Green

Josh Green

30′ · -6

Mark Williams

Mark Williams

26′ · +6

Cody Martin

Cody Martin

19′ · -1

Nick Richards

Nick Richards

16′ · -3

DaQuan Jeffries

DaQuan Jeffries

7′ · -14

Tidjane Salaun

Tidjane Salaun

13′ · +1

Vasilije Micic

Vasilije Micic

10′ · +7

Moussa Diabate

Moussa Diabate

5′ · -5

Isaiah Wong

Isaiah Wong

5′ · +3

WAS
Jordan Poole

Jordan Poole

35′ · +12

Bilal Coulibaly

Bilal Coulibaly

31′ · +4

Bub Carrington

Bub Carrington

28′ · -7

Alex Sarr

Alex Sarr

25′ · +1

Justin Champagnie

Justin Champagnie

13′ · -10

Malcolm Brogdon

Malcolm Brogdon

30′ · +9

Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas

23′ · +2

Corey Kispert

Corey Kispert

30′ · +1

Kyshawn George

Kyshawn George

24′ · +3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHA and WAS.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Charlotte Hornets

  • Bridges, Ball, Green, Williams, and Miller played 19.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Martin, Williams, Miller, Salaun, and Micic played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bridges, Martin, Ball, Richards, and Miller played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

Washington Wizards

  • Brogdon, Kispert, Carrington, George, and Valanciunas played 11.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Poole, Champagnie, Coulibaly, Sarr, and Carrington played 10.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Brogdon, Poole, Kispert, George, and Valanciunas played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Charlotte Hornets

  • Martin, Ball, Richards, Wong, and Salaun played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bridges, Martin, Ball, Richards, and Wong played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bridges, Martin, Jeffries, Ball, and Richards played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Green, Williams, Miller, Salaun, and Micic played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bridges, Ball, Green, Diabate, and Miller played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Bridges, Jeffries, Ball, Green, and Diabate played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jeffries, Ball, Green, Richards, and Salaun played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Green, Richards, Miller, Salaun, and Micic played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bridges, Martin, Richards, Miller, and Micic played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Jeffries, Ball, Green, Diabate, and Miller played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

Washington Wizards

  • Brogdon, Poole, Coulibaly, Sarr, and Carrington played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, Sarr, and George played 4.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • Brogdon, Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, and Valanciunas played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Brogdon, Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, and Sarr played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, George, and Valanciunas played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brogdon, Poole, Champagnie, Coulibaly, and Valanciunas played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.193
84.6% of capacity
Capital One Arena · Washington
Scoring
223
combined points
4.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

18 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors