Win probability changed during the game. · 26 December 2024
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 23 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when CHA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CHA
Ball · Miller · Bridges · Green · Williams
Closing lineup · WAS
Coulibaly · Carrington · Sarr · Champagnie · Brogdon
LaMelo Ball
38′ · -10
Brandon Miller
36′ · +6
Miles Bridges
34′ · +1
Josh Green
30′ · -6
Mark Williams
26′ · +6
Cody Martin
19′ · -1
Nick Richards
16′ · -3
DaQuan Jeffries
7′ · -14
Tidjane Salaun
13′ · +1
Vasilije Micic
10′ · +7
Moussa Diabate
5′ · -5
Isaiah Wong
5′ · +3
Jordan Poole
35′ · +12
Bilal Coulibaly
31′ · +4
Bub Carrington
28′ · -7
Alex Sarr
25′ · +1
Justin Champagnie
13′ · -10
Malcolm Brogdon
30′ · +9
Jonas Valanciunas
23′ · +2
Corey Kispert
30′ · +1
Kyshawn George
24′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CHA and WAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Ball, Green, Williams, and Miller played 19.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Martin, Williams, Miller, Salaun, and Micic played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Bridges, Martin, Ball, Richards, and Miller played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Washington Wizards
Brogdon, Kispert, Carrington, George, and Valanciunas played 11.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Poole, Champagnie, Coulibaly, Sarr, and Carrington played 10.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Brogdon, Poole, Kispert, George, and Valanciunas played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Charlotte Hornets
Martin, Ball, Richards, Wong, and Salaun played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Martin, Ball, Richards, and Wong played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bridges, Martin, Jeffries, Ball, and Richards played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Green, Williams, Miller, Salaun, and Micic played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bridges, Ball, Green, Diabate, and Miller played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Bridges, Jeffries, Ball, Green, and Diabate played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Jeffries, Ball, Green, Richards, and Salaun played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Green, Richards, Miller, Salaun, and Micic played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Bridges, Martin, Richards, Miller, and Micic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Jeffries, Ball, Green, Diabate, and Miller played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Washington Wizards
Brogdon, Poole, Coulibaly, Sarr, and Carrington played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, Sarr, and George played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Brogdon, Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, and Valanciunas played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Brogdon, Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, and Sarr played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, George, and Valanciunas played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brogdon, Poole, Champagnie, Coulibaly, and Valanciunas played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

