Win probability changed during the game. · 29 December 2024
It was more exciting than 73% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 20 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when BKN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BKN
Johnson · Claxton · Simmons · Martin · Thomas
Closing lineup · ORL
da Silva · Caldwell-Pope · Bitadze · Isaac · Harris
Keon Johnson
33′ · -3
Nic Claxton
32′ · -19
Ben Simmons
31′ · -22
Noah Clowney
28′ · -4
Cameron Johnson
25′ · +1
Jalen Wilson
31′ · +5
Tyrese Martin
20′ · +13
Cam Thomas
25′ · +8
Day'Ron Sharpe
16′ · +18
Tristan da Silva
35′ · +23
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
34′ · +17
Goga Bitadze
34′ · +9
Wendell Carter Jr.
27′ · -2
Jalen Suggs
13′ · -4
Jonathan Isaac
19′ · -12
Gary Harris
15′ · -13
Trevelin Queen
6′ · -14
Jett Howard
12′ · -18
Cory Joseph
14′ · -7
Cole Anthony
17′ · +17
Caleb Houstan
15′ · +9
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BKN and ORL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Brooklyn Nets
Simmons, Claxton, Johnson, Johnson, and Clowney played 9.6 minutes together.
Sharpe, Johnson, Thomas, Wilson, and Martin played 7.7 minutes together.
Claxton, Johnson, Thomas, Wilson, and Martin played 5.5 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Brooklyn Nets lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Orlando Magic
Carter, Bitadze, Suggs, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Carter, Bitadze, Anthony, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Bitadze, Howard, da Silva, Joseph, and Caldwell-Pope played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Brooklyn Nets
Simmons, Claxton, Johnson, Thomas, and Clowney played 4.4 minutes together.
Simmons, Claxton, Johnson, Wilson, and Clowney played 4.0 minutes together.
Simmons, Claxton, Johnson, Thomas, and Wilson played 3.7 minutes together.
Simmons, Sharpe, Johnson, Wilson, and Clowney played 3.7 minutes together.
Simmons, Johnson, Sharpe, Martin, and Clowney played 2.0 minutes together.
Johnson, Sharpe, Wilson, Martin, and Clowney played 1.5 minutes together.
Johnson, Sharpe, Johnson, Wilson, and Martin played 1.0 minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Isaac, Carter, Queen, Howard, and Harris played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 10 points.
Bitadze, Suggs, da Silva, Joseph, and Caldwell-Pope played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Isaac, Bitadze, Anthony, Houstan, and Harris played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Bitadze, Anthony, Houstan, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 11 points.
Carter, Houstan, da Silva, Joseph, and Caldwell-Pope played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Isaac, Carter, Houstan, Joseph, and Harris played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Isaac, Carter, Suggs, Howard, and Caldwell-Pope played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Carter, Anthony, Houstan, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Isaac, Bitadze, Anthony, da Silva, and Harris played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Isaac, Bitadze, Queen, Howard, and Harris played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Isaac, Bitadze, Houstan, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Carter, Houstan, da Silva, Joseph, and Harris played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Isaac, Bitadze, Anthony, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

