Win probability changed during the game. · 30 January 2025
It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 28 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Green · Thompson · VanVleet · Eason · Tate
Closing lineup · MEM
Bane · Jackson · Wells · Aldama · Clarke
Jalen Green
39′ · +10
Amen Thompson
38′ · -1
Fred VanVleet
36′ · -11
Dillon Brooks
30′ · 0
Steven Adams
23′ · -6
Jock Landale
16′ · +7
Tari Eason
30′ · -1
Cam Whitmore
17′ · +3
Jae'Sean Tate
11′ · -6
Desmond Bane
40′ · +12
Luke Kennard
33′ · +3
Jaren Jackson Jr.
31′ · +8
Jaylen Wells
30′ · +12
Zach Edey
17′ · -2
Santi Aldama
26′ · -6
GG Jackson
9′ · -14
Brandon Clarke
31′ · +1
Scotty Pippen Jr.
12′ · -7
Jake LaRavia
10′ · -2
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and MEM.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Thompson, and Adams played 10.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Landale, Green, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Eason, and Thompson played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Kennard, Jackson, Bane, Edey, and Wells played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Kennard, Clarke, Bane, Aldama, and Wells played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Clarke, Bane, and Wells played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Landale, Tate, Eason, and Whitmore played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Landale, Green, and Thompson played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brooks, Green, Eason, Thompson, and Adams played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
VanVleet, Green, Eason, Thompson, and Adams played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Eason, and Adams played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
VanVleet, Green, Tate, Eason, and Thompson played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Whitmore, and Adams played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Landale, Tate, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Brooks, Green, Tate, Thompson, and Adams played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
VanVleet, Brooks, Landale, Eason, and Whitmore played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Brooks, Landale, Tate, Thompson, and Whitmore played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Memphis Grizzlies
Kennard, Jackson, Clarke, Pippen, and LaRavia played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Bane, Aldama, Jackson, Edey, and Wells played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Jackson, Clarke, Bane, Aldama, and Wells played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Clarke, Bane, Aldama, and LaRavia played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Kennard, Jackson, Bane, LaRavia, and Edey played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Clarke, Bane, Aldama, Pippen, and Wells played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jackson, Clarke, Bane, Pippen, and Wells played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jackson, Clarke, Aldama, Pippen, and Jackson played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Clarke, Bane, and Aldama played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Kennard, Jackson, Clarke, Aldama, and LaRavia played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Kennard, Bane, Aldama, Edey, and Wells played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Clarke, Bane, Aldama, Pippen, and Jackson played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jackson, Clarke, Bane, Aldama, and Jackson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

