SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 30 January 2025

HOU119–120MEM
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 28 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MEM winsHOU wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MEM leads and falls when HOU does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · HOU

Jalen Green
Amen Thompson
Fred VanVleet
Tari Eason
Jae'Sean Tate

Green · Thompson · VanVleet · Eason · Tate

Closing lineup · MEM

Desmond Bane
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jaylen Wells
Santi Aldama
Brandon Clarke

Bane · Jackson · Wells · Aldama · Clarke

Q1Q2Q3Q4
HOU
Jalen Green

Jalen Green

39′ · +10

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson

38′ · -1

Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet

36′ · -11

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks

30′ · 0

Steven Adams

Steven Adams

23′ · -6

Jock Landale

Jock Landale

16′ · +7

Tari Eason

Tari Eason

30′ · -1

Cam Whitmore

Cam Whitmore

17′ · +3

Jae'Sean Tate

Jae'Sean Tate

11′ · -6

MEM
Desmond Bane

Desmond Bane

40′ · +12

Luke Kennard

Luke Kennard

33′ · +3

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

31′ · +8

Jaylen Wells

Jaylen Wells

30′ · +12

Zach Edey

Zach Edey

17′ · -2

Santi Aldama

Santi Aldama

26′ · -6

GG Jackson

GG Jackson

9′ · -14

Brandon Clarke

Brandon Clarke

31′ · +1

Scotty Pippen Jr.

Scotty Pippen Jr.

12′ · -7

Jake LaRavia

Jake LaRavia

10′ · -2

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and MEM.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Thompson, and Adams played 10.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Landale, Green, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Eason, and Thompson played 5.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Kennard, Jackson, Bane, Edey, and Wells played 8.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 8 points.

  • Kennard, Clarke, Bane, Aldama, and Wells played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Clarke, Bane, and Wells played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Landale, Tate, Eason, and Whitmore played 4.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Landale, Green, and Thompson played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Brooks, Green, Eason, Thompson, and Adams played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • VanVleet, Green, Eason, Thompson, and Adams played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Eason, and Adams played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • VanVleet, Green, Tate, Eason, and Thompson played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Whitmore, and Adams played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Landale, Tate, Eason, Thompson, and Whitmore played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Brooks, Green, Tate, Thompson, and Adams played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Landale, Eason, and Whitmore played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Brooks, Landale, Tate, Thompson, and Whitmore played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Kennard, Jackson, Clarke, Pippen, and LaRavia played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bane, Aldama, Jackson, Edey, and Wells played 3.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Jackson, Clarke, Bane, Aldama, and Wells played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kennard, Clarke, Bane, Aldama, and LaRavia played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Bane, LaRavia, and Edey played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Clarke, Bane, Aldama, Pippen, and Wells played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Jackson, Clarke, Bane, Pippen, and Wells played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Jackson, Clarke, Aldama, Pippen, and Jackson played 2.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Clarke, Bane, and Aldama played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Kennard, Jackson, Clarke, Aldama, and LaRavia played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kennard, Bane, Aldama, Edey, and Wells played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Clarke, Bane, Aldama, Pippen, and Jackson played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Jackson, Clarke, Bane, Aldama, and Jackson played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
16.257
91.4% of capacity
FedExForum · Memphis
Scoring
239
combined points
11.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors