Win probability changed during the game. · 31 January 2025
It was more exciting than 81% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when BOS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BOS
Tatum · Porzingis · Holiday · Horford · Kornet
Closing lineup · NOP
Murphy · McCollum · Green · Boston · Alvarado
Jayson Tatum
39′ · +4
Jaylen Brown
35′ · +2
Derrick White
34′ · +2
Kristaps Porzingis
30′ · +3
Jrue Holiday
30′ · +1
Al Horford
25′ · -4
Payton Pritchard
17′ · 0
Luke Kornet
16′ · +2
Sam Hauser
14′ · 0
Jaden Springer
0′ · 0
Trey Murphy III
39′ · +3
CJ McCollum
34′ · -2
Yves Missi
30′ · -2
Javonte Green
29′ · +1
Dejounte Murray
8′ · -1
Karlo Matkovic
18′ · 0
Brandon Boston
30′ · -7
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
13′ · -4
Jose Alvarado
34′ · +1
Jamal Cain
5′ · +1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BOS and NOP.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Boston Celtics
Brown, Tatum, White, Holiday, and Porzingis played 22.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Tatum, Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and Horford played 8.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Brown, Kornet, Pritchard, Hauser, and Horford played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
New Orleans Pelicans
Green, Murphy, Alvarado, Missi, and McCollum played 10.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Robinson-Earl, Boston, Alvarado, Matkovic, and McCollum played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Green, Murphy, Missi, and McCollum played 5.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Boston Celtics
Tatum, White, Horford, Holiday, and Porzingis played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, White, Horford, Holiday, and Porzingis played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Brown, White, Kornet, Pritchard, and Horford played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Brown, Tatum, White, Horford, and Holiday played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Tatum, White, Hauser, Horford, and Porzingis played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
New Orleans Pelicans
Robinson-Earl, Boston, Murphy, Alvarado, and Matkovic played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Green, Boston, Murphy, Alvarado, and Missi played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Green, Boston, Murphy, Missi, and McCollum played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Boston, Murphy, Alvarado, Cain, and Missi played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Boston, Alvarado, Matkovic, Cain, and McCollum played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Green, Murphy, Matkovic, and McCollum played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Green, Boston, Murphy, Matkovic, and McCollum played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Robinson-Earl, Boston, Alvarado, Missi, and McCollum played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

