Win probability changed during the game. · 5 February 2025
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DET leads and falls when CLE does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · CLE
Mobley · Garland · Strus · Merrill · Niang
Closing lineup · DET
Cunningham · Thompson · Duren · Beasley · Sasser
Evan Mobley
35′ · +5
Jarrett Allen
32′ · -1
Darius Garland
31′ · -6
Max Strus
28′ · -1
Caris LeVert
21′ · -5
Sam Merrill
27′ · +8
Georges Niang
23′ · +2
Ty Jerome
19′ · +12
Jaylon Tyson
9′ · 0
Craig Porter Jr.
16′ · +1
Cade Cunningham
38′ · +2
Tim Hardaway Jr.
35′ · +7
Ausar Thompson
27′ · -2
Tobias Harris
25′ · +6
Jalen Duren
22′ · +4
Isaiah Stewart
18′ · 0
Malik Beasley
25′ · -2
Ronald Holland II
19′ · -10
Simone Fontecchio
11′ · -11
Marcus Sasser
11′ · -2
Paul Reed
8′ · -7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. CLE and DET.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Cleveland Cavaliers
LeVert, Allen, Strus, Garland, and Mobley played 14.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Niang, Jerome, Merrill, Mobley, and Porter played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Niang, Jerome, Merrill, Mobley, and Tyson played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Detroit Pistons
Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 10.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Stewart, Cunningham, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 8 points.
Beasley, Reed, Sasser, Fontecchio, and Holland played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Cleveland Cavaliers
Niang, Allen, Strus, Garland, and Merrill played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Allen, Strus, Garland, Merrill, and Mobley played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
LeVert, Allen, Strus, Garland, and Porter played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
LeVert, Niang, Jerome, Mobley, and Porter played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Niang, Allen, Garland, Jerome, and Merrill played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Allen, Garland, Merrill, Porter, and Tyson played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Niang, Allen, Strus, Jerome, and Merrill played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jerome, Merrill, Mobley, Porter, and Tyson played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Detroit Pistons
Beasley, Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, and Hardaway played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Harris, and Hardaway played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Holland played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Cunningham, Duren, Thompson, Holland, and Hardaway played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Cunningham, Duren, Sasser, Holland, and Hardaway played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Stewart, Cunningham, Holland, and Hardaway played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Beasley, Reed, Cunningham, Fontecchio, and Holland played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Beasley, Duren, Sasser, Holland, and Harris played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Beasley, Stewart, Thompson, Harris, and Hardaway played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

