SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 7 February 2025

SAS116–117CHA
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ CHA winsSAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHA leads and falls when SAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · SAS

Devin Vassell
Victor Wembanyama
De'Aaron Fox
Chris Paul
Stephon Castle

Vassell · Wembanyama · Fox · Paul · Castle

Closing lineup · CHA

Miles Bridges
Nick Smith Jr.
Moussa Diabate
Tidjane Salaun
Taj Gibson

Bridges · Smith · Diabate · Salaun · Gibson

Q1Q2Q3Q4
SAS
Devin Vassell

Devin Vassell

34′ · +19

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama

34′ · -1

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

33′ · -7

Chris Paul

Chris Paul

27′ · -5

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

22′ · -3

Jeremy Sochan

Jeremy Sochan

24′ · -1

Julian Champagnie

Julian Champagnie

19′ · -9

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle

31′ · +7

Keldon Johnson

Keldon Johnson

16′ · -5

CHA
LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball

36′ · +8

Miles Bridges

Miles Bridges

35′ · +7

Nick Smith Jr.

Nick Smith Jr.

34′ · +3

Moussa Diabate

Moussa Diabate

33′ · -4

DaQuan Jeffries

DaQuan Jeffries

30′ · +2

Seth Curry

Seth Curry

21′ · +7

KJ Simpson

KJ Simpson

19′ · -12

Tidjane Salaun

Tidjane Salaun

18′ · -10

Taj Gibson

Taj Gibson

13′ · +4

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and CHA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Paul, Fox, Vassell, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 11.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.

  • Paul, Vassell, Champagnie, Wembanyama, and Castle played 7.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Castle played 4.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

Charlotte Hornets

  • Bridges, Jeffries, Ball, Diabate, and Smith played 13.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Bridges, Jeffries, Diabate, Smith, and Simpson played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Ball, Salaun, Simpson, Gibson, and Curry played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

San Antonio Spurs

  • Fox, Vassell, Sochan, Castle, and Barnes played 4.0 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

  • Paul, Fox, Champagnie, Sochan, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, and Castle played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Fox, Johnson, Vassell, Wembanyama, and Castle played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Paul, Fox, Vassell, Wembanyama, and Castle played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Castle played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Fox, Johnson, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Castle played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Paul, Fox, Vassell, Sochan, and Castle played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

Charlotte Hornets

  • Bridges, Ball, Smith, Gibson, and Curry played 5.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Jeffries, Ball, Diabate, Salaun, and Curry played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Bridges, Ball, Diabate, Smith, and Salaun played 3.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Bridges, Jeffries, Diabate, Simpson, and Curry played 2.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Jeffries, Ball, Diabate, Smith, and Salaun played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Bridges, Smith, Simpson, Gibson, and Curry played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Bridges, Ball, Salaun, Simpson, and Curry played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.290
101.1% of capacity
Spectrum Center · Charlotte
Scoring
233
combined points
5.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Personal · 01:28.2
De'Aaron Fox → LaMelo Ball
Fox (SAS) steps forward into Ball's (CHA) path and delivers body contact during his drive that affects his SQBR. This contact occurs prior to, and causes, the traveling violation committed by Ball.