Win probability changed during the game. · 7 February 2025
It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when CHA leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Vassell · Wembanyama · Fox · Paul · Castle
Closing lineup · CHA
Bridges · Smith · Diabate · Salaun · Gibson
Devin Vassell
34′ · +19
Victor Wembanyama
34′ · -1
De'Aaron Fox
33′ · -7
Chris Paul
27′ · -5
Harrison Barnes
22′ · -3
Jeremy Sochan
24′ · -1
Julian Champagnie
19′ · -9
Stephon Castle
31′ · +7
Keldon Johnson
16′ · -5
LaMelo Ball
36′ · +8
Miles Bridges
35′ · +7
Nick Smith Jr.
34′ · +3
Moussa Diabate
33′ · -4
DaQuan Jeffries
30′ · +2
Seth Curry
21′ · +7
KJ Simpson
19′ · -12
Tidjane Salaun
18′ · -10
Taj Gibson
13′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and CHA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Paul, Fox, Vassell, Wembanyama, and Barnes played 11.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Paul, Vassell, Champagnie, Wembanyama, and Castle played 7.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Johnson, Vassell, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Castle played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Jeffries, Ball, Diabate, and Smith played 13.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Bridges, Jeffries, Diabate, Smith, and Simpson played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Ball, Salaun, Simpson, Gibson, and Curry played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
Fox, Vassell, Sochan, Castle, and Barnes played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Paul, Fox, Champagnie, Sochan, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, and Castle played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Fox, Johnson, Vassell, Wembanyama, and Castle played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Paul, Fox, Vassell, Wembanyama, and Castle played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Castle played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, and Barnes played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Fox, Johnson, Sochan, Wembanyama, and Castle played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Paul, Fox, Vassell, Sochan, and Castle played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Charlotte Hornets
Bridges, Ball, Smith, Gibson, and Curry played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jeffries, Ball, Diabate, Salaun, and Curry played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Bridges, Ball, Diabate, Smith, and Salaun played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Bridges, Jeffries, Diabate, Simpson, and Curry played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jeffries, Ball, Diabate, Smith, and Salaun played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Bridges, Smith, Simpson, Gibson, and Curry played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Bridges, Ball, Salaun, Simpson, and Curry played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

