Win probability changed during the game. · 28 February 2025
It was more exciting than 88% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when MIN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIN
Reid · Alexander-Walker · McDaniels · Conley · DiVincenzo
Closing lineup · UTA
Collier · Collins · Kessler · George · Martin
Naz Reid
41′ · -5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
35′ · -14
Jaden McDaniels
35′ · -14
Terrence Shannon Jr
28′ · -6
Mike Conley
24′ · -16
Donte DiVincenzo
26′ · +14
Luka Garza
18′ · +11
Jaylen Clark
16′ · +14
Rob Dillingham
18′ · +11
Isaiah Collier
30′ · +16
John Collins
27′ · +11
Walker Kessler
26′ · +23
Johnny Juzang
21′ · +12
Collin Sexton
17′ · +13
Brice Sensabaugh
23′ · -6
Keyonte George
25′ · -23
KJ Martin
22′ · -8
Cody Williams
18′ · -10
Kyle Filipowski
22′ · -22
Jaden Springer
10′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIN and UTA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Alexander-Walker, Reid, McDaniels, Shannon, and Conley played 17.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Garza, Clark, and Dillingham played 8.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, McDaniels, and Conley played 6.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Utah Jazz
Collins, Sexton, Juzang, Kessler, and Collier played 7.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 16 points.
Collins, Sexton, Springer, Collier, and Filipowski played 5.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Martin, George, Sensabaugh, Williams, and Filipowski played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Minnesota Timberwolves
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, McDaniels, and Shannon played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Alexander-Walker, McDaniels, Shannon, Garza, and Dillingham played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, McDaniels, Garza, and Clark played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
DiVincenzo, McDaniels, Garza, Clark, and Dillingham played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Shannon, Clark, and Dillingham played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Garza, and Clark played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Alexander-Walker, Reid, McDaniels, Shannon, and Dillingham played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Utah Jazz
Martin, Springer, George, Williams, and Filipowski played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Martin, Kessler, George, Sensabaugh, and Williams played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Collins, Juzang, Kessler, Sensabaugh, and Collier played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Collins, Kessler, George, Williams, and Collier played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Collins, Sexton, Juzang, Collier, and Filipowski played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Collins, Kessler, George, Sensabaugh, and Collier played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Martin, Juzang, George, Sensabaugh, and Filipowski played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Martin, Juzang, Kessler, George, and Sensabaugh played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Martin, Juzang, Sensabaugh, Collier, and Filipowski played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Martin, Kessler, Sensabaugh, Williams, and Collier played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

