Toronto Raptors – Orlando Magic · NBA

Win probability changed during the game. · 4 March 2025

TOR114–113ORL

Is it worth watching?

Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017

· It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ ORL winsTOR wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when TOR does.

This is how the game was decided.

RJ Barrett decided it, the Toronto Raptors player with the most points (21, with 8 rebounds and 9 assists; +3 with him on the floor); the winner's best plus-minus was Jakob Poeltl's (+14). The criterion: the winner's points in the box score; plus-minus says who was on the floor when the game opened up.

The game-winner in Orlando Magic 113-114 Toronto Raptors (March 4, 2025) was hit by Ja'Kobe Walter: a three-pointer with 0.1 s left in the fourth quarter, putting the Toronto Raptors up 114-113. They never trailed again.

The biggest run of Orlando Magic 113-114 Toronto Raptors (March 4, 2025) was a 9-0 run by the Toronto Raptors in the third quarter (from 8:28 to 6:28), from 56-62 to 65-62. The Orlando Magic' best was a 8-0 run in the third quarter (from 9:14 to 8:39), from 54-56 to 62-56.

▸See where these figures come from

Play: Ja'Kobe Walter makes 24-foot three pointer (Jamal Shead assists).

I count as the game-winner the basket that puts the winning team ahead for good. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

A run here is consecutive points by one team without the opponent scoring. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

Source: the game's official box score and play-by-play.

Ja'Kobe Walter decided this game: his points put his team ahead with 0.1 seconds left in the fourth quarter, and the opponent never led again.

It is the only game he has decided this way in the NBA since the 2002-03 season.

His profile shows the games Walter decided

▸See where these figures come from

A game is decided by the last basket that puts a team ahead in the final ten seconds of the fourth quarter or of an overtime, if that team wins.

4 March 2025 · The source is the ESPN play-by-play, play espn:401705449:734; the date is the one on the NBA box score.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · TOR

Walter · Robinson · Shead · Lawson · Rhoden

Closing lineup · ORL

Banchero · Wagner · Caldwell-Pope · Carter · da Silva

Q1Q2Q3Q4

TOR

RJ Barrett

32′ · +6

Scottie Barnes

30′ · +2

Ja'Kobe Walter

28′ · +4

Immanuel Quickley

26′ · +2

Jakob Poeltl

24′ · +14

Orlando Robinson

24′ · -13

Jamal Shead

22′ · -1

Jonathan Mogbo

7′ · +2

A.J. Lawson

26′ · -8

Jared Rhoden

21′ · -3

ORL

Paolo Banchero

40′ · -6

Franz Wagner

36′ · +8

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

27′ · -10

Cory Joseph

26′ · -1

Wendell Carter Jr.

24′ · -6

Jett Howard

10′ · -2

Tristan da Silva

28′ · +8

Anthony Black

15′ · +1

Jonathan Isaac

18′ · +8

Goga Bitadze

16′ · -5

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. TOR and ORL.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Toronto Raptors

Poeltl, Barrett, Quickley, Barnes, and Walter played 13.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Poeltl, Quickley, Barnes, Lawson, and Rhoden played 5.8 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Barrett, Lawson, Robinson, Walter, and Shead played 5.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Orlando Magic

Carter, Wagner, Banchero, Joseph, and Caldwell-Pope played 13.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Isaac, Bitadze, Wagner, Black, and da Silva played 7.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Banchero, da Silva, and Joseph played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 10 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Toronto Raptors

Barrett, Lawson, Robinson, Rhoden, and Shead played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Barrett, Robinson, Walter, Shead, and Mogbo played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Quickley, Barnes, Lawson, Robinson, and Rhoden played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Barnes, Lawson, Robinson, Rhoden, and Shead played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Quickley, Barnes, Lawson, Robinson, and Mogbo played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Poeltl, Barrett, Rhoden, Walter, and Shead played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Lawson, Robinson, Rhoden, Walter, and Shead played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Poeltl, Barnes, Lawson, Rhoden, and Shead played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Barrett, Quickley, Barnes, Robinson, and Walter played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Barrett, Robinson, Rhoden, Walter, and Shead played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Orlando Magic

Bitadze, Wagner, Banchero, Black, and da Silva played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Carter, Banchero, Howard, Joseph, and Caldwell-Pope played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Carter, Banchero, Howard, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 3.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Isaac, Wagner, Banchero, Joseph, and Caldwell-Pope played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Carter, Wagner, Banchero, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Bitadze, Banchero, Howard, da Silva, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Carter, Banchero, Black, Howard, and da Silva played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Isaac, Bitadze, Banchero, da Silva, and Joseph played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Paolo Banchero covered 4.75 km, more than anyone in the game.

Paolo Banchero touched the ball 92 times, a game high.
Paolo Banchero made 59 passes, a game high.
Goga Bitadze defended 7 shots at the rim, a game high, and opponents made 4.
Scottie Barnes had 16 rebound chances, a game high.

▸See what was measured for each player

Toronto Raptors

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
RJ Barrett	3.88	6.8	61	37
Scottie Barnes	3.80	7.0	67	46
Ja'Kobe Walter	3.73	7.2	35	16
Immanuel Quickley	3.52	7.4	49	34
A.J. Lawson	3.30	6.9	18	11
Jakob Poeltl	3.11	7.3	37	27
Orlando Robinson	2.99	6.7	35	26
Jared Rhoden	2.72	7.3	20	15
Jamal Shead	2.70	6.9	42	30
Jonathan Mogbo	0.93	6.9	9	6

Orlando Magic

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
Paolo Banchero	4.75	6.6	92	59
Franz Wagner	4.59	7.0	68	34
Tristan da Silva	3.65	7.1	38	30
Cory Joseph	3.48	7.4	48	40
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	3.14	6.4	34

The figures come from the NBA's optical tracking (NBA.com) for this game; speed is each player's average while on the floor.

Who stood out on defense during the season

These figures cover the whole 2024-25 regular season, not this game.

Toronto Raptors

Jakob Poeltl contested 8.9 shots per game over his 57 games.
He ranks 17 of 388 in the league.
Scottie Barnes recovered 0.8 loose balls per game over his 65 games.
He ranks 26 of 388 in the league.
Jamal Shead drew 0.11 charges per game over his 70 games.
He ranks 32 of 388 in the league.

Orlando Magic

Goga Bitadze contested 6.4 shots per game over his 70 games.
He ranks 41 of 388 in the league.
Franz Wagner drew 0.08 charges per game over his 60 games.
He ranks 49 of 388 in the league.
Wendell Carter Jr. contested 6.0 shots per game over his 68 games.
He ranks 50 of 388 in the league.

Hustle figures come from the hustle stats the NBA publishes (NBA.com) and rim defense comes from its tracking; both cover the regular season. For each player in this game we show the figure that ranks him highest in the league, and for each team, the three best ranked. Ranks count players with at least 30 games and, at the rim, at least 4 defended shots per game.

The Orlando Magic have won 52 of their 119 games against the Toronto Raptors.

52-67record of the Orlando Magic · NBA 1995-96 – 2025-26, regular season and playoffs

1-2in 2025-26

See the full head-to-head in the Analyst

See where it comes from

Official NBA box scores, regular season and playoffs, 1995-96 – 2025-26. It counts every game between the two teams that the house holds, this one included.

SportiveWorld knows much more about this game

Game context

Attendance

17.406

92.4% of capacity

Kia Center · Orlando

Scoring

227

combined points

0.7 below the season average (227.7)

⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

14 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA

Foul: Loose Ball · 00:00.5

Orlando Robinson → Wendell Carter Jr.

Robinson (TOR) reaches back over Carter Jr.'s (ORL) shoulder, affecting his ability to jump for the pass attempt.

Foul: Offensive · 00:04.8

Orlando Robinson → Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Robinson (TOR) is late to establish himself in a screening position in Caldwell-Pope's (ORL) path, delivering illegal contact.