Indiana Pacers – Minnesota Timberwolves · NBA

Win probability changed during the game. · 17 March 2025

IND132–130MIN

Is it worth watching?

The ESPN data for this game contradicts the official result, so it cannot be rated

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIN winsIND wins ↓

The last point of this curve falls on MIN's side, but IND won 132-130. It is an ESPN error at the close of the game: the curve is shown as it is and no conclusion is drawn from it.

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIN leads and falls when IND does.

This is how the game was decided.

Obi Toppin decided it, the Indiana Pacers player with the most points (34, with 10 rebounds and 2 assists; +10 with him on the floor). The criterion: the winner's points in the box score; plus-minus says who was on the floor when the game opened up.

The game-winner in Minnesota Timberwolves 130-132 Indiana Pacers (March 17, 2025) was hit by Obi Toppin: a three-pointer with 3.1 s left in overtime, putting the Indiana Pacers up 132-130. They never trailed again.

The biggest run of Minnesota Timberwolves 130-132 Indiana Pacers (March 17, 2025) was a 14-0 run by the Indiana Pacers in the second quarter (from 8:35 to 5:13), from 35-39 to 49-39. The Minnesota Timberwolves' best was a 10-0 run in the fourth quarter (from 11:38 to 10:22), from 87-89 to 97-89.

With 34 points, this is Obi Toppin's highest-scoring game of the 2024‑25 regular season.

▸See where these figures come from

Play: Obi Toppin makes 22-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists).

I count as the game-winner the basket that puts the winning team ahead for good. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

A run here is consecutive points by one team without the opponent scoring. Source: the official NBA play-by-play (since 2002-03) and each team's official box scores.

Source: the game's official box score and play-by-play.

It is compared by points with all his official NBA box scores in that scope; it is the same criterion the Analyst uses.

Obi Toppin decided this game: his points put his team ahead with 3.1 seconds left in overtime 1, and the opponent never led again.

It is one of the 2 games he has decided this way in the NBA since the 2002-03 season.

His profile shows the games Toppin decided

▸See where these figures come from

A game is decided by the last basket that puts a team ahead in the final ten seconds of the fourth quarter or of an overtime, if that team wins.

17 March 2025 · The source is the ESPN play-by-play, play espn:401705552:799; the date is the one on the NBA box score.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · IND

Toppin · Bryant · Sheppard · Jackson · McConnell

Closing lineup · MIN

Edwards · Randle · Conley · DiVincenzo · Reid

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1

IND

Obi Toppin

45′ · +10

Jarace Walker

35′ · +3

Bennedict Mathurin

35′ · +4

Thomas Bryant

33′ · +3

Andrew Nembhard

19′ · +4

Ben Sheppard

29′ · -1

Tony Bradley

20′ · -1

Quenton Jackson

18′ · -6

T.J. McConnell

30′ · -4

Enrique Freeman

0′ · -1

MIN

Anthony Edwards

41′ · -7

Julius Randle

41′ · -6

Jaden McDaniels

33′ · -6

Mike Conley

32′ · +24

Rudy Gobert

22′ · 0

Donte DiVincenzo

32′ · -20

Naz Reid

30′ · +5

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

27′ · -2

Jaylen Clark

9′ · +2

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. IND and MIN.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Indiana Pacers

Bryant, Toppin, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 7.9 minutes together.
Bryant, Nembhard, Toppin, Mathurin, and Walker played 7.8 minutes together.
Bryant, Toppin, Jackson, Sheppard, and McConnell played 4.7 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Indiana Pacers lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Edwards, McDaniels, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 5.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
DiVincenzo, Edwards, McDaniels, Conley, and Randle played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Alexander-Walker, Reid, McDaniels, Conley, and Gobert played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Indiana Pacers

Bryant, Toppin, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 3.9 minutes together.
Bradley, Nembhard, Toppin, Mathurin, and Walker played 3.5 minutes together.
Bradley, Jackson, Walker, Sheppard, and McConnell played 3.4 minutes together.
Bradley, Toppin, Jackson, Walker, and McConnell played 3.1 minutes together.
Bryant, Nembhard, Toppin, Walker, and Sheppard played 2.9 minutes together.
Bradley, Toppin, Mathurin, Walker, and McConnell played 2.5 minutes together.
Bradley, Nembhard, Mathurin, Walker, and Sheppard played 1.9 minutes together.
Bradley, Mathurin, Walker, Sheppard, and McConnell played 1.9 minutes together.
Bryant, Toppin, Mathurin, Jackson, and Sheppard played 1.9 minutes together.
Bryant, Toppin, Mathurin, Jackson, and Walker played 1.7 minutes together.
Bradley, Nembhard, Toppin, Jackson, and Sheppard played 1.6 minutes together.
Bradley, Nembhard, Toppin, Mathurin, and Sheppard played 1.6 minutes together.

Minnesota Timberwolves

DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, and Clark played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Alexander-Walker, Reid, McDaniels, Conley, and Randle played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, Conley, and Randle played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
DiVincenzo, Edwards, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Edwards, McDaniels, and Randle played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Clark, and Randle played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, and Gobert played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Edwards, McDaniels, and Randle played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
DiVincenzo, Edwards, McDaniels, Gobert, and Randle played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Alexander-Walker, Edwards, Conley, Gobert, and Randle played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Reid, Edwards, and Randle played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
DiVincenzo, Reid, Edwards, Conley, and Randle played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Obi Toppin covered 5.42 km, more than anyone in the game.

T.J. McConnell touched the ball 94 times, a game high.
T.J. McConnell made 86 passes, a game high.
Bennedict Mathurin defended 10 shots at the rim, a game high, and opponents made 5.
Obi Toppin had 18 rebound chances, a game high.

▸See what was measured for each player

Indiana Pacers

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
Obi Toppin	5.42	7.5	74	65
T.J. McConnell	4.01	8.2	94	86
Bennedict Mathurin	3.96	6.8	65	47
Jarace Walker	3.93	6.9	43	27
Ben Sheppard	3.57	7.6	41	41
Thomas Bryant	3.52	6.6	47	33
Tony Bradley	2.43	7.3	28	17
Andrew Nembhard	2.37	7.4	55	40
Quenton Jackson	2.32	7.9	26	19
Enrique Freeman	0.05	6.1	0	0

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player	km	km/h	Touches	Passes
Julius Randle	4.36	6.6	74	58
Anthony Edwards	4.15	6.2	87	56
Jaden McDaniels	3.80	7.1	42	32
Mike Conley	3.78	7.3	54	53
Donte DiVincenzo	3.70	7.1	55

The figures come from the NBA's optical tracking (NBA.com) for this game; speed is each player's average while on the floor.

Who stood out on defense during the season

These figures cover the whole 2024-25 regular season, not this game.

Indiana Pacers

T.J. McConnell drew 0.10 charges per game over his 78 games.
He ranks 37 of 388 in the league.
Andrew Nembhard drew 0.09 charges per game over his 65 games.
He ranks 41 of 388 in the league.
Bennedict Mathurin recovered 0.7 loose balls per game over his 72 games.
He ranks 65 of 388 in the league.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Rudy Gobert contested 9.9 shots per game over his 72 games.
He ranks 8 of 388 in the league.
Julius Randle recovered 0.9 loose balls per game over his 68 games.
He ranks 9 of 388 in the league.
Jaden McDaniels deflected 2.7 passes per game over his 82 games.
He ranks 35 of 388 in the league.

Hustle figures come from the hustle stats the NBA publishes (NBA.com) and rim defense comes from its tracking; both cover the regular season. For each player in this game we show the figure that ranks him highest in the league, and for each team, the three best ranked. Ranks count players with at least 30 games and, at the rim, at least 4 defended shots per game.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have won 29 of their 72 games against the Indiana Pacers.

29-43record of the Minnesota Timberwolves · NBA 1989-90 – 2025-26, regular season and playoffs

2-0in 2025-26

See the full head-to-head in the Analyst

See where it comes from

Official NBA box scores, regular season and playoffs, 1989-90 – 2025-26. It counts every game between the two teams that the house holds, this one included.

SportiveWorld knows much more about this game

Game context

Attendance

17.955

99.6% of capacity

Target Center · Minneapolis

Scoring

262

combined points

34.3 above the season average (227.7)

⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

18 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA

Stoppage: Out-of-Bounds · 00:14.0

Donte DiVincenzo → Pacers

DiVincenzo (MIN) attempts to save the ball and it touches McConnell's (IND) elbow before going out of bounds. Possession should be given to Minnesota instead of Indiana.