Win probability changed during the game. · 29 March 2025
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 38 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when WAS leads and falls when BKN does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · BKN
Martin · Johnson · Williams · Wilson · Watford
Closing lineup · WAS
Johnson · Martin · Jones · Vukcevic · Thor
Tyrese Martin
31′ · +5
Keon Johnson
31′ · +5
Ziaire Williams
25′ · +7
Cameron Johnson
24′ · +7
Noah Clowney
19′ · +13
Drew Timme
29′ · -12
Jalen Wilson
23′ · -2
Trendon Watford
24′ · -4
Dariq Whitehead
17′ · -2
Maxwell Lewis
17′ · -2
AJ Johnson
42′ · -8
Alex Sarr
25′ · -7
Bub Carrington
22′ · -4
Jordan Poole
21′ · -5
Justin Champagnie
17′ · -12
Jaylen Martin
30′ · +9
Colby Jones
29′ · +6
Marcus Smart
7′ · +2
Tristan Vukcevic
24′ · +4
JT Thor
23′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. BKN and WAS.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Brooklyn Nets
Johnson, Williams, Johnson, Martin, and Clowney played 18.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 13 points.
Watford, Wilson, Timme, Lewis, and Whitehead played 17.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Johnson, Watford, Wilson, Timme, and Martin played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Washington Wizards
Poole, Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, and Johnson played 17.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Thor, Jones, Vukcevic, Martin, and Johnson played 16.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Thor, Jones, Vukcevic, Martin, and Smart played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See every lineup of the game
Brooklyn Nets
Williams, Johnson, Watford, Timme, and Martin played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Johnson, Williams, Johnson, Timme, and Martin played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Johnson, Johnson, Wilson, Timme, and Martin played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Washington Wizards
Thor, Jones, Martin, Sarr, and Johnson played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Vukcevic, Martin, Carrington, and Smart played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Poole, Jones, Martin, Sarr, and Johnson played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jones, Martin, Sarr, Johnson, and Smart played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Poole, Martin, Sarr, Carrington, and Johnson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

