Win probability changed during the game. · 9 April 2025
It was more exciting than 64% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when GSW leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Barnes · Castle · Vassell · Johnson · Champagnie
Closing lineup · GSW
Butler · Curry · Green · Podziemski · Moody
Harrison Barnes
36′ · +3
Stephon Castle
35′ · -15
Chris Paul
29′ · -9
Devin Vassell
28′ · -9
Bismack Biyombo
11′ · -19
Keldon Johnson
31′ · +20
Julian Champagnie
29′ · +18
Sandro Mamukelashvili
23′ · +10
Blake Wesley
19′ · +14
Jimmy Butler III
38′ · -9
Stephen Curry
37′ · +13
Draymond Green
33′ · -6
Brandin Podziemski
33′ · 0
Moses Moody
31′ · -3
Buddy Hield
26′ · -1
Jonathan Kuminga
18′ · -2
Kevon Looney
12′ · 0
Gui Santos
8′ · -8
Trayce Jackson-Davis
3′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and GSW.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Paul, Vassell, Castle, Biyombo, and Barnes played 10.7 minutes together.
Johnson, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Wesley, and Barnes played 5.8 minutes together.
Johnson, Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, and Castle played 5.2 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each San Antonio Spurs lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Golden State Warriors
Moody, Podziemski, Curry, Butler, and Green played 14.4 minutes together.
Hield, Podziemski, Curry, Butler, and Green played 6.6 minutes together.
Looney, Hield, Kuminga, Podziemski, and Butler played 4.4 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Golden State Warriors lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
Paul, Johnson, Champagnie, Wesley, and Barnes played 4.7 minutes together.
Paul, Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, and Castle played 4.7 minutes together.
Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Castle, and Barnes played 4.0 minutes together.
Paul, Mamukelashvili, Wesley, Castle, and Barnes played 3.6 minutes together.
Paul, Johnson, Mamukelashvili, Wesley, and Barnes played 2.5 minutes together.
Johnson, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Wesley, and Castle played 2.5 minutes together.
Paul, Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Castle, and Barnes played 1.9 minutes together.
Vassell, Mamukelashvili, Champagnie, Castle, and Barnes played 1.3 minutes together.
Golden State Warriors
Looney, Hield, Kuminga, Santos, and Curry played 3.9 minutes together.
Moody, Santos, Podziemski, Butler, and Green played 3.8 minutes together.
Hield, Kuminga, Moody, Curry, and Green played 2.9 minutes together.
Hield, Kuminga, Moody, Jackson-Davis, and Curry played 2.8 minutes together.
Kuminga, Moody, Podziemski, Butler, and Green played 2.3 minutes together.
Hield, Moody, Curry, Butler, and Green played 1.8 minutes together.
Looney, Hield, Moody, Curry, and Butler played 1.6 minutes together.
Looney, Hield, Podziemski, Curry, and Butler played 1.2 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

