SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 13 April 2025

WAS119–118MIA
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 79% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ MIA winsWAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when WAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · WAS

AJ Johnson
Bub Carrington
Justin Champagnie
Colby Jones
Tristan Vukcevic

Johnson · Carrington · Champagnie · Jones · Vukcevic

Closing lineup · MIA

Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Terry Rozier
Kyle Anderson
Josh Christopher
Keshad Johnson

Jaquez · Rozier · Anderson · Christopher · Johnson

Q1Q2Q3Q4
WAS
AJ Johnson

AJ Johnson

48′ · +1

Bub Carrington

Bub Carrington

41′ · -4

Justin Champagnie

Justin Champagnie

39′ · -4

Alex Sarr

Alex Sarr

16′ · +3

Kyshawn George

Kyshawn George

15′ · -4

Colby Jones

Colby Jones

42′ · +7

Tristan Vukcevic

Tristan Vukcevic

39′ · +6

MIA
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

41′ · -4

Haywood Highsmith

Haywood Highsmith

22′ · +4

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell

20′ · +1

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson

20′ · +1

Kel'el Ware

Kel'el Ware

20′ · +1

Terry Rozier

Terry Rozier

34′ · -1

Kyle Anderson

Kyle Anderson

28′ · -4

Josh Christopher

Josh Christopher

28′ · -2

Keshad Johnson

Keshad Johnson

28′ · -1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and MIA.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Washington Wizards

  • Champagnie, Jones, Vukcevic, Carrington, and Johnson played 29.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Jones, Vukcevic, Sarr, George, and Johnson played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, George, and Johnson played 5.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

Miami Heat

  • Rozier, Christopher, Jaquez, Johnson, and Anderson played 24.6 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Robinson, Highsmith, Mitchell, Jaquez, and Ware played 13.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Rozier, Robinson, Highsmith, Mitchell, and Ware played 4.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 6 points.

▸See every lineup of the game

Washington Wizards

  • Champagnie, Jones, Carrington, George, and Johnson played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Jones, Vukcevic, Sarr, Carrington, and Johnson played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Champagnie, Jones, Vukcevic, Sarr, and Johnson played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

Miami Heat

  • Rozier, Highsmith, Christopher, Jaquez, and Johnson played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Rozier, Highsmith, Christopher, Johnson, and Anderson played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Rozier, Robinson, Mitchell, Ware, and Anderson played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.968
101.9% of capacity
Kaseya Center · Miami
Scoring
237
combined points
9.3 above the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

17 calls reviewed0 no admitted errors