Win probability changed during the game. · 13 April 2025
It was more exciting than 79% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when MIA leads and falls when WAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · WAS
Johnson · Carrington · Champagnie · Jones · Vukcevic
Closing lineup · MIA
Jaquez · Rozier · Anderson · Christopher · Johnson
AJ Johnson
48′ · +1
Bub Carrington
41′ · -4
Justin Champagnie
39′ · -4
Alex Sarr
16′ · +3
Kyshawn George
15′ · -4
Colby Jones
42′ · +7
Tristan Vukcevic
39′ · +6
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
41′ · -4
Haywood Highsmith
22′ · +4
Davion Mitchell
20′ · +1
Duncan Robinson
20′ · +1
Kel'el Ware
20′ · +1
Terry Rozier
34′ · -1
Kyle Anderson
28′ · -4
Josh Christopher
28′ · -2
Keshad Johnson
28′ · -1
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. WAS and MIA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Washington Wizards
Champagnie, Jones, Vukcevic, Carrington, and Johnson played 29.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jones, Vukcevic, Sarr, George, and Johnson played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Champagnie, Sarr, Carrington, George, and Johnson played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Miami Heat
Rozier, Christopher, Jaquez, Johnson, and Anderson played 24.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Robinson, Highsmith, Mitchell, Jaquez, and Ware played 13.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Rozier, Robinson, Highsmith, Mitchell, and Ware played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Washington Wizards
Champagnie, Jones, Carrington, George, and Johnson played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Jones, Vukcevic, Sarr, Carrington, and Johnson played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Champagnie, Jones, Vukcevic, Sarr, and Johnson played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Miami Heat
Rozier, Highsmith, Christopher, Jaquez, and Johnson played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Rozier, Highsmith, Christopher, Johnson, and Anderson played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Rozier, Robinson, Mitchell, Ware, and Anderson played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

