Win probability changed during the game. · 11 December 2024
It was more exciting than 74% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when GSW does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · GSW
Kuminga · Hield · Curry · Green · Podziemski
Closing lineup · HOU
Smith · Brooks · VanVleet · Thompson · Eason
Jonathan Kuminga
36′ · +2
Buddy Hield
35′ · +9
Stephen Curry
34′ · +4
Draymond Green
30′ · -2
Gary Payton II
18′ · -14
Lindy Waters III
23′ · -3
Brandin Podziemski
31′ · +4
Kevon Looney
11′ · -4
Kyle Anderson
4′ · -5
Trayce Jackson-Davis
15′ · +3
Pat Spencer
3′ · +1
Jabari Smith Jr.
38′ · -1
Dillon Brooks
38′ · +1
Fred VanVleet
36′ · -3
Alperen Sengun
32′ · -4
Jalen Green
31′ · +3
Amen Thompson
29′ · +6
Tari Eason
24′ · +4
Aaron Holiday
12′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and HOU.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Golden State Warriors
Hield, Payton, Kuminga, Curry, and Green played 10.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Hield, Kuminga, Podziemski, Curry, and Green played 6.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Hield, Kuminga, Waters, Jackson-Davis, and Podziemski played 6.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 18.8 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 10.4 minutes together.
Holiday, Green, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 7.9 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Houston Rockets lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Golden State Warriors
Looney, Waters, Podziemski, Curry, and Green played 5.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Looney, Hield, Kuminga, Waters, and Podziemski played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Hield, Kuminga, Spencer, Jackson-Davis, and Podziemski played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Payton, Waters, Jackson-Davis, Curry, and Green played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hield, Kuminga, Jackson-Davis, Podziemski, and Curry played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Looney, Waters, Podziemski, Curry, and Anderson played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Payton, Waters, Curry, Green, and Anderson played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Hield, Kuminga, Waters, Curry, and Green played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Houston Rockets
VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Smith, and Thompson played 2.8 minutes together.
Brooks, Green, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 2.4 minutes together.
VanVleet, Holiday, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 2.2 minutes together.
VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Smith, and Thompson played 2.0 minutes together.
Brooks, Holiday, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 1.6 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

