SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 11 December 2024

GSW90–91HOU
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 74% of NBA games since 2017

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ HOU winsGSW wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when HOU leads and falls when GSW does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · GSW

Jonathan Kuminga
Buddy Hield
Stephen Curry
Draymond Green
Brandin Podziemski

Kuminga · Hield · Curry · Green · Podziemski

Closing lineup · HOU

Jabari Smith Jr.
Dillon Brooks
Fred VanVleet
Amen Thompson
Tari Eason

Smith · Brooks · VanVleet · Thompson · Eason

Q1Q2Q3Q4
GSW
Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga

36′ · +2

Buddy Hield

Buddy Hield

35′ · +9

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry

34′ · +4

Draymond Green

Draymond Green

30′ · -2

Gary Payton II

Gary Payton II

18′ · -14

Lindy Waters III

Lindy Waters III

23′ · -3

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski

31′ · +4

Kevon Looney

Kevon Looney

11′ · -4

Kyle Anderson

Kyle Anderson

4′ · -5

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Trayce Jackson-Davis

15′ · +3

Pat Spencer

Pat Spencer

3′ · +1

HOU
Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr.

38′ · -1

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks

38′ · +1

Fred VanVleet

Fred VanVleet

36′ · -3

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun

32′ · -4

Jalen Green

Jalen Green

31′ · +3

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson

29′ · +6

Tari Eason

Tari Eason

24′ · +4

Aaron Holiday

Aaron Holiday

12′ · +3

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. GSW and HOU.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Golden State Warriors

  • Hield, Payton, Kuminga, Curry, and Green played 10.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hield, Kuminga, Podziemski, Curry, and Green played 6.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Hield, Kuminga, Waters, Jackson-Davis, and Podziemski played 6.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Sengun, and Smith played 18.8 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 10.4 minutes together.

  • Holiday, Green, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 7.9 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each Houston Rockets lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

Golden State Warriors

  • Looney, Waters, Podziemski, Curry, and Green played 5.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Looney, Hield, Kuminga, Waters, and Podziemski played 3.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hield, Kuminga, Spencer, Jackson-Davis, and Podziemski played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Payton, Waters, Jackson-Davis, Curry, and Green played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hield, Kuminga, Jackson-Davis, Podziemski, and Curry played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Looney, Waters, Podziemski, Curry, and Anderson played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Payton, Waters, Curry, Green, and Anderson played 1.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.

  • Hield, Kuminga, Waters, Curry, and Green played 1.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

Houston Rockets

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Sengun, Smith, and Thompson played 2.8 minutes together.

  • Brooks, Green, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 2.4 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Holiday, Sengun, Eason, and Thompson played 2.2 minutes together.

  • VanVleet, Brooks, Green, Smith, and Thompson played 2.0 minutes together.

  • Brooks, Holiday, Smith, Eason, and Thompson played 1.6 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
18.055
100% of capacity
Toyota Center · Houston
Scoring
181
combined points
46.7 below the season average (227.7)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

22 calls reviewed2 errors admitted by the NBA
Turnover: 5 Second Violation · 00:03.5
Brandin Podziemski → Rockets
Podziemski (GSW) does not inbound the ball within five seconds.
Foul: Defense 3 Second · 01:41
Dillon Brooks → Warriors
Brooks (HOU) is in the paint for longer than three seconds without imminently actively guarding an opponent.