Win probability changed during the game. · 29 April 2025
It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when MIL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIL
Trent · Porter · Green · Antetokounmpo · Portis
Closing lineup · IND
Turner · Haliburton · Nesmith · Siakam · Nembhard
Gary Trent Jr.
48′ · -8
Kevin Porter Jr.
47′ · +4
AJ Green
46′ · +6
Giannis Antetokounmpo
44′ · -2
Bobby Portis
44′ · +1
Jericho Sims
11′ · -3
Kyle Kuzma
13′ · -1
Brook Lopez
8′ · 0
Taurean Prince
4′ · -2
Myles Turner
43′ · -5
Tyrese Haliburton
42′ · -3
Aaron Nesmith
41′ · +3
Pascal Siakam
41′ · +1
Andrew Nembhard
37′ · 0
Jarace Walker
11′ · +1
T.J. McConnell
17′ · +1
Bennedict Mathurin
16′ · +1
Obi Toppin
11′ · +5
Ben Sheppard
6′ · +1
Thomas Bryant
0′ · 0
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIL and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Milwaukee Bucks
Portis, Trent, Porter, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 33.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Prince, Trent, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Portis, Kuzma, Porter, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Indiana Pacers
Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 26.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Nembhard, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Walker played 8.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Toppin, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 6.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
▸See every lineup of the game
Milwaukee Bucks
Portis, Kuzma, Trent, Porter, and Sims played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Kuzma, Porter, Sims, Green, and Lopez played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Kuzma, Trent, Porter, Sims, and Lopez played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Trent, Porter, Sims, and Green played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Kuzma, Trent, Sims, Lopez, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Trent, Porter, Sims, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Trent, Porter, Green, Lopez, and Antetokounmpo played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, and McConnell played 3.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Turner, Siakam, Nesmith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Turner, Siakam, Haliburton, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Turner, Nembhard, Nesmith, Walker, and McConnell played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
Game context
Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

