SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 29 April 2025

MIL118–119IND
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 98% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 22 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ IND winsMIL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when MIL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · MIL

Gary Trent Jr.
Kevin Porter Jr.
AJ Green
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Bobby Portis

Trent · Porter · Green · Antetokounmpo · Portis

Closing lineup · IND

Myles Turner
Tyrese Haliburton
Aaron Nesmith
Pascal Siakam
Andrew Nembhard

Turner · Haliburton · Nesmith · Siakam · Nembhard

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT1
MIL
Gary Trent Jr.

Gary Trent Jr.

48′ · -8

Kevin Porter Jr.

Kevin Porter Jr.

47′ · +4

AJ Green

AJ Green

46′ · +6

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

44′ · -2

Bobby Portis

Bobby Portis

44′ · +1

Jericho Sims

Jericho Sims

11′ · -3

Kyle Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma

13′ · -1

Brook Lopez

Brook Lopez

8′ · 0

Taurean Prince

Taurean Prince

4′ · -2

IND
Myles Turner

Myles Turner

43′ · -5

Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton

42′ · -3

Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith

41′ · +3

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam

41′ · +1

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard

37′ · 0

Jarace Walker

Jarace Walker

11′ · +1

T.J. McConnell

T.J. McConnell

17′ · +1

Bennedict Mathurin

Bennedict Mathurin

16′ · +1

Obi Toppin

Obi Toppin

11′ · +5

Ben Sheppard

Ben Sheppard

6′ · +1

Thomas Bryant

Thomas Bryant

0′ · 0

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIL and IND.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Portis, Trent, Porter, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 33.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Portis, Prince, Trent, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Portis, Kuzma, Porter, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 2.6 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

Indiana Pacers

  • Turner, Siakam, Nembhard, Haliburton, and Nesmith played 26.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Haliburton, Nesmith, and Walker played 8.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Siakam, Toppin, Mathurin, Sheppard, and McConnell played 6.2 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Milwaukee Bucks

  • Portis, Kuzma, Trent, Porter, and Sims played 2.5 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Kuzma, Porter, Sims, Green, and Lopez played 2.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Kuzma, Trent, Porter, Sims, and Lopez played 2.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Portis, Trent, Porter, Sims, and Green played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Kuzma, Trent, Sims, Lopez, and Antetokounmpo played 1.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Trent, Porter, Sims, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Trent, Porter, Green, Lopez, and Antetokounmpo played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

Indiana Pacers

  • Siakam, Toppin, Haliburton, Mathurin, and McConnell played 3.9 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 5 points.

  • Turner, Siakam, Nesmith, Mathurin, and McConnell played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Turner, Siakam, Haliburton, Mathurin, and McConnell played 1.2 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Turner, Nembhard, Nesmith, Walker, and McConnell played 1.1 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
17.274
96.4% of capacity
Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
Series
Game 5
First round
IND 4-1
Scoring
237
combined points
19.5 above the season average (217.5)
⚖️ The last two minutes

Official NBA L2M report: every call in the endgame, reviewed by the league.

25 calls reviewed1 errors admitted by the NBA
Foul: Shooting · 00:17.1
AJ Green → Tyrese Haliburton
Green (MIL) maintains a legal guarding position alongside of Haliburton (IND) during his drive to the basket and shot attempt.