Win probability changed during the game. · 24 October 2025
It was more exciting than 94% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when UTA does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · UTA
Markkanen · George · Filipowski · Sensabaugh · Clayton
Closing lineup · SAC
Sabonis · LaVine · Schroder · Westbrook · Ellis
Lauri Markkanen
36′ · +4
Keyonte George
34′ · +5
Walker Kessler
30′ · +7
Kyle Filipowski
25′ · +19
Svi Mykhailiuk
24′ · +14
Brice Sensabaugh
22′ · -9
Ace Bailey
13′ · -16
Taylor Hendricks
17′ · -13
Jusuf Nurkic
18′ · -8
Walter Clayton Jr.
20′ · -8
Domantas Sabonis
37′ · -15
DeMar DeRozan
37′ · -15
Zach LaVine
37′ · +2
Dennis Schroder
33′ · -7
Isaac Jones
14′ · -12
Dario Saric
16′ · +17
Malik Monk
21′ · +10
Drew Eubanks
11′ · +16
Russell Westbrook
17′ · +5
Keon Ellis
17′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. UTA and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Mykhailiuk, Kessler, George, and Filipowski played 11.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Markkanen, Mykhailiuk, Filipowski, Clayton, and Nurkic played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Kessler, Hendricks, George, Sensabaugh, and Bailey played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Sacramento Kings
Sabonis, Jones, DeRozan, Schroder, and LaVine played 10.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 15 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Ellis, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 9.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Sabonis, DeRozan, Schroder, LaVine, and Saric played 8.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Utah Jazz
Markkanen, Kessler, George, Filipowski, and Clayton played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Mykhailiuk, Kessler, George, Sensabaugh, and Filipowski played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Hendricks, Sensabaugh, Clayton, Bailey, and Nurkic played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Markkanen, Kessler, George, Sensabaugh, and Clayton played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Markkanen, Kessler, Hendricks, George, and Sensabaugh played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Markkanen, Mykhailiuk, Hendricks, George, and Nurkic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Markkanen, Sensabaugh, Clayton, Bailey, and Nurkic played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hendricks, George, Sensabaugh, Bailey, and Nurkic played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Markkanen, Sensabaugh, Filipowski, Clayton, and Nurkic played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Markkanen, Kessler, Hendricks, George, and Bailey played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Markkanen, Mykhailiuk, Sensabaugh, Clayton, and Nurkic played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Markkanen, Hendricks, Clayton, Bailey, and Nurkic played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Sacramento Kings
Monk, Eubanks, Schroder, LaVine, and Saric played 4.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Sabonis, Westbrook, DeRozan, Schroder, and LaVine played 3.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sabonis, Monk, Ellis, DeRozan, and LaVine played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Eubanks, Ellis, Jones, Schroder, and LaVine played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Eubanks, Westbrook, Schroder, LaVine, and Saric played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Sabonis, Monk, DeRozan, Schroder, and LaVine played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Monk, Eubanks, Ellis, Jones, and Schroder played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Monk, Eubanks, Westbrook, LaVine, and Saric played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
