Win probability changed during the game. · 29 October 2025
It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 34 times
- · It stayed close for almost the whole game
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when PHX leads and falls when MEM does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MEM
Morant · Jackson · Wells · Aldama · Coward
Closing lineup · PHX
Booker · Allen · O'Neale · Williams · Gillespie
Ja Morant
32′ · +13
Jaren Jackson Jr.
32′ · -2
Jaylen Wells
29′ · -2
Jock Landale
24′ · 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
19′ · +6
Santi Aldama
31′ · +8
Cedric Coward
28′ · +4
John Konchar
17′ · -13
Javon Small
10′ · -15
Cam Spencer
19′ · +6
Devin Booker
36′ · +4
Grayson Allen
36′ · -2
Royce O'Neale
35′ · +7
Ryan Dunn
28′ · +4
Mark Williams
28′ · +6
Collin Gillespie
31′ · +1
Oso Ighodaro
12′ · -7
Nigel Hayes-Davis
14′ · -9
Isaiah Livers
8′ · -12
Nick Richards
12′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MEM and PHX.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Landale, Morant, Wells, and Caldwell-Pope played 7.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Landale, Morant, Konchar, Spencer, and Wells played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jackson, Konchar, Aldama, Coward, and Small played 5.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Williams, and Dunn played 14.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, O'Neale, Allen, Williams, and Gillespie played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
O'Neale, Allen, Richards, Gillespie, and Ighodaro played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Memphis Grizzlies
Jackson, Morant, Aldama, Wells, and Coward played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Landale, Morant, Aldama, Wells, and Coward played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Jackson, Aldama, Spencer, Coward, and Small played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Jackson, Morant, Aldama, Coward, and Caldwell-Pope played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jackson, Morant, Aldama, Wells, and Caldwell-Pope played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Landale, Aldama, Spencer, Wells, and Coward played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Jackson, Morant, Aldama, Spencer, and Coward played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Jackson, Morant, Aldama, Spencer, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Landale, Morant, Konchar, Wells, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Landale, Konchar, Coward, Small, and Caldwell-Pope played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Jackson, Konchar, Aldama, Spencer, and Coward played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Jackson, Aldama, Spencer, Wells, and Coward played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Phoenix Suns
Booker, O'Neale, Gillespie, Ighodaro, and Dunn played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
O'Neale, Allen, Richards, Gillespie, and Dunn played 2.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Booker, Hayes-Davis, Livers, Williams, and Dunn played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Hayes-Davis, Allen, Livers, Gillespie, and Ighodaro played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Booker, Hayes-Davis, Livers, Gillespie, and Ighodaro played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
O'Neale, Hayes-Davis, Allen, Richards, and Gillespie played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Booker, Hayes-Davis, Allen, Richards, and Gillespie played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Hayes-Davis, Williams, Gillespie, and Dunn played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Booker, Allen, Williams, Gillespie, and Dunn played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

