Win probability changed during the game. · 3 November 2025
It was more exciting than 82% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when IND leads and falls when MIL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · MIL
Trent · Turner · Antetokounmpo · Green · Rollins
Closing lineup · IND
Siakam · Walker · Nesmith · Jackson · Sheppard
Gary Trent Jr.
34′ · +8
Myles Turner
32′ · +7
Giannis Antetokounmpo
32′ · +8
AJ Green
29′ · +3
Ryan Rollins
28′ · -4
Taurean Prince
21′ · +6
Cole Anthony
23′ · +4
Kyle Kuzma
16′ · -6
Bobby Portis
16′ · -5
Jericho Sims
5′ · -7
Amir Coffey
4′ · -4
Pascal Siakam
38′ · -8
Jarace Walker
38′ · -10
Aaron Nesmith
34′ · -9
Isaiah Jackson
29′ · -7
Quenton Jackson
20′ · +11
Johnny Furphy
13′ · +12
Tony Bradley
7′ · +1
RayJ Dennis
8′ · -13
Ben Sheppard
20′ · +9
Jay Huff
14′ · +3
Mac McClung
2′ · -7
Taelon Peter
11′ · 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
7′ · +8
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. MIL and IND.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Milwaukee Bucks
Turner, Trent, Rollins, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 17.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Portis, Prince, Kuzma, Anthony, and Green played 6.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Prince, Trent, Anthony, and Antetokounmpo played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Indiana Pacers
Siakam, Nesmith, Jackson, Jackson, and Walker played 10.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Nesmith, Huff, Jackson, Walker, and Furphy played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Siakam, Nesmith, Jackson, Walker, and Sheppard played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Milwaukee Bucks
Turner, Trent, Coffey, Rollins, and Antetokounmpo played 3.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Portis, Prince, Kuzma, Anthony, and Sims played 3.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Portis, Trent, Anthony, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Turner, Prince, Kuzma, Trent, and Anthony played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Kuzma, Anthony, Sims, and Rollins played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Turner, Trent, Anthony, Rollins, and Antetokounmpo played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Prince, Kuzma, Rollins, and Green played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Turner, Prince, Rollins, Green, and Antetokounmpo played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Turner, Prince, Trent, Rollins, and Antetokounmpo played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Portis, Prince, Kuzma, Trent, and Anthony played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Indiana Pacers
Bradley, Nesmith, Huff, Sheppard, and Peter played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Nesmith, Robinson-Earl, Jackson, and Walker played 3.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Siakam, Nesmith, Jackson, Walker, and Dennis played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 12 points.
Siakam, Nesmith, Jackson, McClung, and Walker played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Siakam, Jackson, Jackson, Sheppard, and Furphy played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Siakam, Robinson-Earl, Walker, Sheppard, and Peter played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Huff, Sheppard, Furphy, and Dennis played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Siakam, Huff, Walker, Sheppard, and Peter played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Siakam, Robinson-Earl, Jackson, Walker, and Peter played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Siakam, Nesmith, Jackson, Jackson, and Furphy played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Jackson, Walker, Sheppard, and Peter played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Siakam, Huff, Walker, Sheppard, and Dennis played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Siakam, Huff, Sheppard, Furphy, and Peter played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
