Win probability changed during the game. · 10 November 2025
It was more exciting than 93% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when ORL leads and falls when POR does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · POR
Holiday · Avdija · Camara · Sharpe · Grant
Closing lineup · ORL
Wagner · Banchero · Bane · Black · Carter
Jrue Holiday
36′ · +14
Deni Avdija
35′ · -11
Toumani Camara
34′ · +3
Donovan Clingan
29′ · -4
Shaedon Sharpe
29′ · +4
Jerami Grant
31′ · -1
Kris Murray
19′ · -3
Robert Williams III
14′ · -6
Sidy Cissoko
10′ · -7
Duop Reath
4′ · -4
Franz Wagner
36′ · -1
Paolo Banchero
35′ · -7
Desmond Bane
33′ · -2
Anthony Black
32′ · -13
Wendell Carter Jr.
30′ · +2
Tristan da Silva
17′ · +7
Jett Howard
19′ · +8
Goga Bitadze
18′ · +3
Jonathan Isaac
14′ · +8
Tyus Jones
6′ · +4
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. POR and ORL.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Sharpe, Camara, Clingan, and Holiday played 13.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Murray, Camara, Holiday, and Grant played 4.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Williams, Avdija, Sharpe, Camara, and Reath played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Orlando Magic
Carter, Bane, Wagner, Banchero, and Black played 12.9 minutes together.
Bitadze, Banchero, Black, Howard, and da Silva played 7.0 minutes together.
Isaac, Carter, Bane, Wagner, and Howard played 6.8 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Orlando Magic lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Sharpe, Camara, Holiday, and Grant played 3.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Williams, Avdija, Murray, Holiday, and Grant played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Avdija, Murray, Cissoko, Clingan, and Grant played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Avdija, Camara, Clingan, Holiday, and Grant played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Murray, Camara, Clingan, Holiday, and Grant played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Cissoko, Clingan, Holiday, and Grant played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Cissoko, Clingan, and Grant played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sharpe, Murray, Camara, Clingan, and Grant played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sharpe, Camara, Clingan, Holiday, and Grant played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Williams, Avdija, Murray, Cissoko, and Grant played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Avdija, Cissoko, Clingan, Holiday, and Grant played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Orlando Magic
Jones, Isaac, Carter, Bane, and Wagner played 3.8 minutes together.
Bitadze, Bane, Wagner, Banchero, and da Silva played 2.9 minutes together.
Bitadze, Wagner, Banchero, Black, and da Silva played 2.8 minutes together.
Carter, Bane, Banchero, Black, and da Silva played 2.5 minutes together.
Bitadze, Wagner, Banchero, Black, and Howard played 2.3 minutes together.
Isaac, Carter, Bane, Howard, and da Silva played 2.0 minutes together.
Bitadze, Bane, Wagner, Banchero, and Black played 1.7 minutes together.
Jones, Bitadze, Wagner, Banchero, and Black played 1.1 minutes together.
Carter, Wagner, Banchero, Black, and Howard played 1.1 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

