Win probability changed during the game. · 30 November 2025
It was more exciting than 80% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when POR leads and falls when OKC does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · OKC
Gilgeous-Alexander · Williams · Dort · Williams · Mitchell
Closing lineup · POR
Camara · Avdija · Murray · Grant · Cissoko
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
36′ · +2
Jalen Williams
34′ · +12
Chet Holmgren
30′ · +14
Luguentz Dort
28′ · -1
Cason Wallace
21′ · -2
Jaylin Williams
14′ · -4
Isaiah Joe
15′ · -2
Ajay Mitchell
29′ · +7
Aaron Wiggins
20′ · +9
Kenrich Williams
13′ · +5
Toumani Camara
38′ · +1
Deni Avdija
37′ · +4
Kris Murray
35′ · -12
Jerami Grant
34′ · -11
Sidy Cissoko
21′ · +7
Rayan Rupert
6′ · -8
Robert Williams III
19′ · 0
Duop Reath
3′ · -9
Shaedon Sharpe
22′ · -18
Caleb Love
19′ · +3
Hansen Yang
4′ · +3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. OKC and POR.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, Williams, and Wallace played 13.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Wiggins, Holmgren, Williams, and Mitchell played 10.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Joe, Wiggins, Williams, and Mitchell played 6.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Murray, Cissoko, Camara, and Grant played 10.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, Camara, and Grant played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 11 points.
Sharpe, Love, Murray, Yang, and Grant played 4.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Williams, and Mitchell played 4.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Holmgren, Williams, and Mitchell played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Williams, and Wallace played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Wiggins, Williams, Wallace, and Mitchell played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Joe, Williams, and Wallace played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, Wallace, and Mitchell played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Wiggins, Holmgren, and Williams played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Portland Trail Blazers
Avdija, Love, Murray, Camara, and Grant played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Williams, Avdija, Sharpe, Love, and Camara played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Avdija, Cissoko, Camara, and Grant played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Avdija, Love, Murray, Cissoko, and Camara played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Avdija, Sharpe, Murray, and Camara played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Williams, Avdija, Love, Murray, and Camara played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Sharpe, Rupert, Reath, and Grant played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Williams, Sharpe, Love, Rupert, and Grant played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Avdija, Rupert, Camara, and Reath played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sharpe, Love, Murray, Cissoko, and Grant played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 8 points.
Williams, Avdija, Murray, Cissoko, and Camara played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Williams, Avdija, Murray, Camara, and Grant played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Avdija, Murray, Cissoko, Rupert, and Camara played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Williams, Sharpe, Love, Camara, and Grant played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

