SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 4 December 2025

LAL123–120TOR
Is it worth watching?
Highly recommended

It was more exciting than 91% of NBA games since 2017

  • · It was still open in the final minutes
  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 17 times
  • · It stayed close for almost the whole game

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ TOR winsLAL wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when TOR leads and falls when LAL does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · LAL

Austin Reaves
LeBron James
Rui Hachimura
Deandre Ayton
Jake LaRavia

Reaves · James · Hachimura · Ayton · LaRavia

Closing lineup · TOR

Sandro Mamukelashvili
Brandon Ingram
Scottie Barnes
Immanuel Quickley
Jamal Shead

Mamukelashvili · Ingram · Barnes · Quickley · Shead

Q1Q2Q3Q4
LAL
Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves

41′ · +6

LeBron James

LeBron James

36′ · -1

Rui Hachimura

Rui Hachimura

35′ · +4

Deandre Ayton

Deandre Ayton

32′ · -1

Gabe Vincent

Gabe Vincent

24′ · 0

Jake LaRavia

Jake LaRavia

28′ · +1

Jaxson Hayes

Jaxson Hayes

16′ · +4

Nick Smith Jr.

Nick Smith Jr.

14′ · +6

Adou Thiero

Adou Thiero

10′ · -2

Dalton Knecht

Dalton Knecht

3′ · -2

TOR
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Sandro Mamukelashvili

37′ · -2

Brandon Ingram

Brandon Ingram

36′ · -3

Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes

36′ · +3

Immanuel Quickley

Immanuel Quickley

32′ · -11

Ja'Kobe Walter

Ja'Kobe Walter

25′ · -3

Collin Murray-Boyles

Collin Murray-Boyles

16′ · -1

Jamal Shead

Jamal Shead

21′ · +1

Gradey Dick

Gradey Dick

16′ · -3

Jamison Battle

Jamison Battle

16′ · +5

Jonathan Mogbo

Jonathan Mogbo

5′ · -1

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. LAL and TOR.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Ayton, Hachimura, Reaves, LaRavia, and James played 12.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ayton, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and James played 11.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Vincent, Hayes, LaRavia, Smith, and James played 5.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Toronto Raptors

  • Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Walter played 11.3 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 1 point.

  • Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Shead played 5.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.

  • Ingram, Quickley, Mamukelashvili, Walter, and Murray-Boyles played 5.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

▸See every lineup of the game

Los Angeles Lakers

  • Ayton, Reaves, Knecht, Thiero, and James played 3.3 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, Smith, and Thiero played 2.8 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

  • Hachimura, Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, and Smith played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Hachimura, Hayes, Reaves, LaRavia, and James played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ayton, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and Thiero played 1.9 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ayton, Vincent, Smith, Thiero, and James played 1.7 minutes together.

    Their team tied that stretch.

  • Hachimura, Vincent, Hayes, Reaves, and Smith played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Hachimura, Vincent, Hayes, Reaves, and LaRavia played 1.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 3 points.

  • Ayton, Hachimura, Vincent, Reaves, and LaRavia played 1.0 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.

Toronto Raptors

  • Ingram, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Shead, and Battle played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 4 points.

  • Barnes, Dick, Shead, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 4.4 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 9 points.

  • Quickley, Barnes, Dick, Walter, and Mogbo played 3.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.

  • Ingram, Mamukelashvili, Walter, Shead, and Murray-Boyles played 3.4 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.

  • Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, Dick, and Battle played 2.7 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.

  • Ingram, Quickley, Barnes, Mamukelashvili, and Dick played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

  • Ingram, Dick, Shead, Battle, and Murray-Boyles played 2.1 minutes together.

    Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.

  • Ingram, Mamukelashvili, Walter, Shead, and Mogbo played 1.5 minutes together.

    Their team won that stretch by 2 points.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
19.800
100% of capacity
Scotiabank Arena · Toronto
Scoring
243
combined points
11.8 above the season average (231.2)