SportiveWorld

Win probability changed during the game. · 8 December 2025

SAS135–132NOP
Is it worth watching?
Recommended

It was more exciting than 70% of NBA games since 2017

  • · The win probability swung between the two teams 20 times

It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.

↑ NOP winsSAS wins ↓

Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when SAS does.

Rotations · who was on the floor

Closing lineup · SAS

Harrison Barnes
De'Aaron Fox
Devin Vassell
Dylan Harper
Julian Champagnie

Barnes · Fox · Vassell · Harper · Champagnie

Closing lineup · NOP

Trey Murphy III
Saddiq Bey
Derik Queen
Yves Missi
Jose Alvarado

Murphy · Bey · Queen · Missi · Alvarado

Q1Q2Q3Q4
SAS
Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes

35′ · -17

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox

30′ · -4

Devin Vassell

Devin Vassell

27′ · -9

Luke Kornet

Luke Kornet

26′ · -10

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle

23′ · -2

Dylan Harper

Dylan Harper

26′ · +5

Julian Champagnie

Julian Champagnie

29′ · +13

Jeremy Sochan

Jeremy Sochan

4′ · +1

Keldon Johnson

Keldon Johnson

17′ · +11

Kelly Olynyk

Kelly Olynyk

15′ · +16

Carter Bryant

Carter Bryant

8′ · +13

NOP
Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III

38′ · +12

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey

36′ · +19

Derik Queen

Derik Queen

33′ · +14

Herbert Jones

Herbert Jones

26′ · +14

Jeremiah Fears

Jeremiah Fears

21′ · +1

Bryce McGowens

Bryce McGowens

24′ · -19

Yves Missi

Yves Missi

8′ · -2

Jose Alvarado

Jose Alvarado

31′ · -10

Micah Peavy

Micah Peavy

13′ · -20

Jordan Hawkins

Jordan Hawkins

4′ · -11

Karlo Matkovic

Karlo Matkovic

7′ · -15

Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and NOP.

These lineups played the most minutes together.

San Antonio Spurs

  • Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Castle, and Barnes played 10.2 minutes together.

  • Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Bryant, and Olynyk played 4.9 minutes together.

  • Kornet, Vassell, Castle, Harper, and Barnes played 3.9 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each San Antonio Spurs lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Bey, Jones, Murphy, Fears, and Queen played 10.3 minutes together.

  • Bey, Jones, Murphy, Alvarado, and Queen played 8.9 minutes together.

  • Bey, Murphy, Alvarado, McGowens, and Queen played 6.1 minutes together.

The plus-minus of each New Orleans Pelicans lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.

▸See every lineup of the game

San Antonio Spurs

  • Fox, Kornet, Champagnie, Harper, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.

  • Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Harper, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.

  • Fox, Champagnie, Castle, Bryant, and Olynyk played 3.2 minutes together.

  • Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Champagnie, and Harper played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Barnes, and Olynyk played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, Harper, and Barnes played 2.0 minutes together.

  • Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, Harper, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Johnson, Champagnie, Harper, Barnes, and Olynyk played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Harper, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.

  • Johnson, Champagnie, Castle, Harper, and Barnes played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Johnson, Champagnie, Castle, Barnes, and Olynyk played 1.3 minutes together.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears, and Queen played 3.0 minutes together.

  • Jones, Alvarado, McGowens, Missi, and Peavy played 2.3 minutes together.

  • Jones, Alvarado, Matkovic, Fears, and Peavy played 2.1 minutes together.

  • Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Missi, and Fears played 2.0 minutes together.

  • Murphy, Alvarado, McGowens, Missi, and Peavy played 2.0 minutes together.

  • Alvarado, McGowens, Hawkins, Queen, and Peavy played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Bey, Murphy, Alvarado, Matkovic, and Fears played 1.8 minutes together.

  • Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Matkovic, and Fears played 1.5 minutes together.

  • Bey, Alvarado, McGowens, Queen, and Peavy played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Jones, Alvarado, Matkovic, Hawkins, and Peavy played 1.4 minutes together.

  • Bey, Murphy, Alvarado, McGowens, and Missi played 1.2 minutes together.

  • Murphy, Alvarado, McGowens, Queen, and Peavy played 1.0 minutes together.

▸See where these figures come from

The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

Game context

Attendance
15.783
93.6% of capacity
Smoothie King Center · New Orleans
Scoring
267
combined points
35.8 above the season average (231.2)