Win probability changed during the game. · 8 December 2025
It was more exciting than 70% of NBA games since 2017
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 20 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when NOP leads and falls when SAS does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · SAS
Barnes · Fox · Vassell · Harper · Champagnie
Closing lineup · NOP
Murphy · Bey · Queen · Missi · Alvarado
Harrison Barnes
35′ · -17
De'Aaron Fox
30′ · -4
Devin Vassell
27′ · -9
Luke Kornet
26′ · -10
Stephon Castle
23′ · -2
Dylan Harper
26′ · +5
Julian Champagnie
29′ · +13
Jeremy Sochan
4′ · +1
Keldon Johnson
17′ · +11
Kelly Olynyk
15′ · +16
Carter Bryant
8′ · +13
Trey Murphy III
38′ · +12
Saddiq Bey
36′ · +19
Derik Queen
33′ · +14
Herbert Jones
26′ · +14
Jeremiah Fears
21′ · +1
Bryce McGowens
24′ · -19
Yves Missi
8′ · -2
Jose Alvarado
31′ · -10
Micah Peavy
13′ · -20
Jordan Hawkins
4′ · -11
Karlo Matkovic
7′ · -15
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. SAS and NOP.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
San Antonio Spurs
Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Castle, and Barnes played 10.2 minutes together.
Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Bryant, and Olynyk played 4.9 minutes together.
Kornet, Vassell, Castle, Harper, and Barnes played 3.9 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each San Antonio Spurs lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
New Orleans Pelicans
Bey, Jones, Murphy, Fears, and Queen played 10.3 minutes together.
Bey, Jones, Murphy, Alvarado, and Queen played 8.9 minutes together.
Bey, Murphy, Alvarado, McGowens, and Queen played 6.1 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each New Orleans Pelicans lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
▸See every lineup of the game
San Antonio Spurs
Fox, Kornet, Champagnie, Harper, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.
Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Harper, and Barnes played 3.8 minutes together.
Fox, Champagnie, Castle, Bryant, and Olynyk played 3.2 minutes together.
Fox, Kornet, Vassell, Champagnie, and Harper played 2.3 minutes together.
Fox, Johnson, Champagnie, Barnes, and Olynyk played 2.1 minutes together.
Johnson, Champagnie, Sochan, Harper, and Barnes played 2.0 minutes together.
Vassell, Champagnie, Sochan, Harper, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.
Johnson, Champagnie, Harper, Barnes, and Olynyk played 1.7 minutes together.
Johnson, Vassell, Champagnie, Harper, and Barnes played 1.7 minutes together.
Johnson, Champagnie, Castle, Harper, and Barnes played 1.5 minutes together.
Johnson, Champagnie, Castle, Barnes, and Olynyk played 1.3 minutes together.
New Orleans Pelicans
Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears, and Queen played 3.0 minutes together.
Jones, Alvarado, McGowens, Missi, and Peavy played 2.3 minutes together.
Jones, Alvarado, Matkovic, Fears, and Peavy played 2.1 minutes together.
Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Missi, and Fears played 2.0 minutes together.
Murphy, Alvarado, McGowens, Missi, and Peavy played 2.0 minutes together.
Alvarado, McGowens, Hawkins, Queen, and Peavy played 1.8 minutes together.
Bey, Murphy, Alvarado, Matkovic, and Fears played 1.8 minutes together.
Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Matkovic, and Fears played 1.5 minutes together.
Bey, Alvarado, McGowens, Queen, and Peavy played 1.4 minutes together.
Jones, Alvarado, Matkovic, Hawkins, and Peavy played 1.4 minutes together.
Bey, Murphy, Alvarado, McGowens, and Missi played 1.2 minutes together.
Murphy, Alvarado, McGowens, Queen, and Peavy played 1.0 minutes together.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

