Win probability changed during the game. · 20 December 2025
It was more exciting than 33% of NBA games since 2017
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when DEN leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Durant · Thompson · Smith · Sengun · Sheppard
Closing lineup · DEN
Brown · Pickett · Nnaji · Tyson · Strawther
Kevin Durant
40′ · +18
Amen Thompson
38′ · +19
Jabari Smith Jr.
38′ · +21
Alperen Sengun
30′ · +24
Josh Okogie
29′ · +6
Reed Sheppard
30′ · +10
Steven Adams
25′ · -10
Aaron Holiday
8′ · -12
Jae'Sean Tate
2′ · -6
Jamal Murray
35′ · -12
Cameron Johnson
32′ · -14
Tim Hardaway Jr.
30′ · -22
Nikola Jokic
29′ · -20
Spencer Jones
28′ · +1
Bruce Brown
28′ · -7
Jalen Pickett
22′ · +1
Jonas Valanciunas
16′ · -10
Zeke Nnaji
11′ · -1
Hunter Tyson
5′ · +7
Julian Strawther
5′ · +7
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and DEN.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Okogie, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Durant played 11.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 7.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Sengun, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 5.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 9 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Johnson, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 17.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Brown, Pickett, Nnaji, Strawther, and Tyson played 4.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, Pickett, Johnson, Nnaji, and Valanciunas played 4.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Okogie, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Holiday, Okogie, Thompson, Durant, and Adams played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Okogie, Smith, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Okogie, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Sheppard played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Holiday, Sengun, Thompson, Sheppard, and Adams played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Okogie, Smith, Thompson, Durant, and Adams played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Holiday, Tate, Smith, Sheppard, and Adams played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Okogie, Sengun, Smith, Sheppard, and Adams played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Holiday, Okogie, Sengun, Smith, and Durant played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Okogie, Sengun, Smith, Sheppard, and Durant played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Sengun, Smith, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Okogie, Sengun, Sheppard, Durant, and Adams played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sengun, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Adams played 1.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Denver Nuggets
Murray, Brown, Pickett, Jones, and Valanciunas played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 7 points.
Brown, Pickett, Johnson, Hardaway, and Jokic played 3.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Johnson, Jones, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 2.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Brown, Johnson, Hardaway, and Jokic played 2.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 9 points.
Murray, Brown, Pickett, Nnaji, and Valanciunas played 2.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Brown, Jones, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Murray, Brown, Pickett, Johnson, and Jokic played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Brown, Pickett, Valanciunas, Hardaway, and Jokic played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Brown, Jones, Valanciunas, and Hardaway played 1.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
