Win probability changed during the game. · 20 December 2025
It was more exciting than 89% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
- · The win probability swung between the two teams 25 times
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when UTA leads and falls when ORL does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · ORL
Banchero · Black · Bane · Carter · Isaac
Closing lineup · UTA
George · Bailey · Mykhailiuk · Sensabaugh · Love
Paolo Banchero
42′ · +1
Anthony Black
40′ · -3
Desmond Bane
39′ · -2
Wendell Carter Jr.
37′ · -1
Tyus Jones
18′ · +5
Jett Howard
15′ · -1
Jase Richardson
23′ · +8
Goga Bitadze
16′ · +2
Jonathan Isaac
11′ · 0
Noah Penda
24′ · -8
Keyonte George
42′ · +7
Ace Bailey
34′ · 0
Svi Mykhailiuk
31′ · 0
Jusuf Nurkic
21′ · -5
Kyle Filipowski
21′ · -7
Brice Sensabaugh
25′ · +3
Isaiah Collier
28′ · +6
Taylor Hendricks
11′ · -2
Kevin Love
32′ · +4
Walter Clayton Jr.
8′ · -6
Cody Williams
13′ · -5
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. ORL and UTA.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Orlando Magic
Jones, Carter, Bane, Banchero, and Black played 12.9 minutes together.
Carter, Bane, Banchero, Black, and Penda played 10.3 minutes together.
Carter, Banchero, Black, Howard, and Richardson played 8.1 minutes together.
The plus-minus of each Orlando Magic lineup is not shown: its rotation stints do not add up with each other.
Utah Jazz
Mykhailiuk, George, Collier, Bailey, and Love played 11.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Mykhailiuk, George, Filipowski, Bailey, and Nurkic played 8.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
George, Sensabaugh, Williams, Filipowski, and Love played 5.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Orlando Magic
Isaac, Bitadze, Bane, Richardson, and Penda played 5.9 minutes together.
Isaac, Bitadze, Bane, Howard, and Richardson played 4.5 minutes together.
Jones, Carter, Banchero, Black, and Penda played 3.8 minutes together.
Bitadze, Bane, Banchero, Howard, and Richardson played 1.6 minutes together.
Bitadze, Bane, Banchero, Richardson, and Penda played 1.4 minutes together.
Carter, Bane, Banchero, Black, and Richardson played 1.4 minutes together.
Utah Jazz
Hendricks, George, Sensabaugh, Collier, and Love played 4.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 5 points.
Sensabaugh, Filipowski, Clayton, Bailey, and Nurkic played 3.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, Clayton, and Love played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, Bailey, and Nurkic played 2.5 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Mykhailiuk, George, Sensabaugh, Filipowski, and Nurkic played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Mykhailiuk, George, Collier, Bailey, and Nurkic played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Hendricks, Sensabaugh, Clayton, Bailey, and Love played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
George, Sensabaugh, Williams, Collier, and Love played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Mykhailiuk, George, Filipowski, Bailey, and Love played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Mykhailiuk, Hendricks, George, Collier, and Love played 1.4 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.

