Win probability changed during the game. · 21 December 2025
It was more exciting than 82% of NBA games since 2017
- · It was still open in the final minutes
It measures how much the win probability moved during the game —without looking at who won or at the score— and compares it with the 10,950 NBA games with a curve since 2017. “Highly recommended” is the most intense 20%, “recommended” runs from 50% to 80%, and “skippable” is the rest. Source: ESPN.
Home team's win probability across the game (source: ESPN). The band rises when SAC leads and falls when HOU does.
Rotations · who was on the floor
Closing lineup · HOU
Durant · Thompson · Sengun · Smith · Sheppard
Closing lineup · SAC
Murray · Westbrook · Achiuwa · Cardwell · Schroder
Kevin Durant
48′ · +2
Amen Thompson
45′ · 0
Alperen Sengun
41′ · +3
Jabari Smith Jr.
36′ · -20
Josh Okogie
34′ · -3
Tari Eason
16′ · -3
Reed Sheppard
34′ · +17
Clint Capela
12′ · -1
Keegan Murray
47′ · +6
DeMar DeRozan
40′ · +8
Maxime Raynaud
37′ · +3
Russell Westbrook
29′ · +1
Precious Achiuwa
18′ · -3
Nique Clifford
27′ · +4
Dylan Cardwell
21′ · -3
Dennis Schroder
32′ · +4
Keon Ellis
9′ · -12
Malik Monk
5′ · -3
Each bar is a stint on the floor (source: NBA). The number is minutes played and the team's +/− with him on the court. HOU and SAC.
These lineups played the most minutes together.
Houston Rockets
Okogie, Sengun, Smith, Thompson, and Durant played 14.8 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 13 points.
Okogie, Sengun, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 7.4 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 14 points.
Sengun, Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 6.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Sacramento Kings
Achiuwa, Murray, Raynaud, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 10.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Clifford, Raynaud, DeRozan, and Schroder played 8.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Murray, Raynaud, Cardwell, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 4.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
▸See every lineup of the game
Houston Rockets
Smith, Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Capela played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Okogie, Sengun, Eason, Sheppard, and Durant played 5.9 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 6 points.
Smith, Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, and Capela played 2.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Okogie, Smith, Thompson, Durant, and Capela played 2.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sengun, Smith, Eason, Thompson, and Sheppard played 1.9 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
Okogie, Sengun, Eason, Thompson, and Durant played 1.5 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Sengun, Eason, Thompson, Sheppard, and Durant played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Okogie, Sengun, Smith, Sheppard, and Durant played 1.2 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 5 points.
Sacramento Kings
Murray, Raynaud, Westbrook, DeRozan, and Schroder played 4.1 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Cardwell, Westbrook, DeRozan, and Schroder played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team tied that stretch.
Achiuwa, Murray, Clifford, Raynaud, and Schroder played 4.0 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 4 points.
Murray, Clifford, Cardwell, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 3.6 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 2 points.
Monk, Murray, Clifford, Cardwell, and Schroder played 2.7 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 4 points.
Achiuwa, Ellis, Clifford, Raynaud, and Schroder played 2.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 7 points.
Ellis, Clifford, Raynaud, Cardwell, and Schroder played 2.1 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 1 point.
Murray, Ellis, Clifford, Cardwell, and Schroder played 1.8 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 1 point.
Monk, Clifford, Cardwell, DeRozan, and Schroder played 1.7 minutes together.
Their team won that stretch by 3 points.
Achiuwa, Murray, Ellis, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 1.6 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 2 points.
Murray, Ellis, Raynaud, Westbrook, and DeRozan played 1.3 minutes together.
Their team lost that stretch by 3 points.
▸See where these figures come from
The lineups come from the NBA's official rotation: who was on the floor and when. Each lineup's plus-minus is worked out from every player's stints and is only shown when they all add up with each other and with the final score.
